NBS leaves rates unchanged in August

Central Bank remains on hold: At its meeting on 7 August, the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) decided to keep the key policy rate unchanged at 5.75%, where it has stood since September 2024. The decision aligned with market expectations.

Above-target inflation warrants caution: The decision to keep interest rates steady was primarily driven by inflation rising to 4.6% in June, above the Bank’s 1.5–4.5% tolerance band. These stronger price pressures were partly caused by the accelerated growth of domestic food costs—particularly non-processed food—over the last few months. Key drivers of higher food costs include higher global market prices for some inputs, adverse weather conditions, and depleted agricultural commodity inventories from last year's drought. Additionally, an increase in petroleum product prices, following a rise in global oil prices after the outbreak of the Iran–Israel conflict, contributed to the recent surge in domestic price pressures.

Panelists still expect rate cuts in 2025: The Central Bank provided no specific forward guidance on future interest rate movements. That said, the majority of our panelists expect the NBS to reduce rates ahead, projecting a total reduction of 25–75 basis points by the end of 2025. The next meeting is set for 11 September.

Panelist insight: Analysts at the EIU commented: “We expect the NBS to maintain a cautious stance in the face of resilient core inflation and an uncertain international economic environment. It will start cutting rates again only once it is convinced that inflationary pressures in the services sector have finally abated, which is now likely to be towards the end of 2025.”

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