Inflation rises above target in June

Latest reading: Inflation came in at 4.6% in June, up from May’s 3.8%. June's reading was the first above the Central Bank’s 1.5–4.5% tolerance band since January. Looking at the details of the release, food inflation hit its highest level since December 2023. Moreover, housing and utilities prices rose at a quicker pace in June compared to the previous month. The trend pointed up mildly, with annual average inflation coming in at 4.3% in June (May: 4.2%). Meanwhile, core inflation ticked up to 4.7% in June from May’s 4.6%. Lastly, consumer prices rose 0.88% from the previous month in June, accelerating from the 0.21% increase logged in May. June's figure was the highest reading since May 2023.

Outlook: Our panelists expect inflation to return to the tolerance band in H2 amid global lower energy prices.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Serbian inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 22 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for Serbian inflation.

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