GDP growth steadies in the second quarter

GDP growth disappoints markets: According to a preliminary reading, annual GDP growth was stable at Q1’s 2.0% in Q2, marking the joint-weakest expansion since Q4 2022, but remaining above the 2010–2019 pre-pandemic average. The reading came in below market expectations.

Drivers: The release did not include a detailed breakdown, but monthly data suggests that the external sector remained a drag on growth as the trade deficit persisted. Meanwhile, both retail trade and industrial output grew at sharper rates in Q2 vs Q1, suggesting that underlying domestic demand was upbeat. Inventories may have had a negative impact on Q2 GDP growth. A comprehensive breakdown is set to be published on 1 September.

Panelist insight: Mate Jelic, analyst at Erste Bank, commented: “For now, we keep our FY25 GDP [growth] forecast unchanged at 3.1% y/y as we still expect a pickup in activity in 2H25, supported also by base effects, although risks are now clearly tilted to the downside.”

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