GDP in Serbia
Serbia - GDP
Comprehensive estimate shows Serbian economy lost momentum in Q4 2018
According to a comprehensive estimate released by the Statistical Institute on 1 March, economic growth cooled notably in the final quarter of the year. The economy grew a revised 3.4% in annual terms in Q4, which was down from the flash estimate of 3.5% growth and was also below Q3’s upwardly revised 4.1% print (previously reported: +3.8% year-on-year). On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted basis, GDP expanded 0.3% in Q4 (Q3: +0.8% quarter-on-quarter). Taking Q4’s growth into account, the economy expanded 4.3% overall in 2018, a significant acceleration from 2017’s 2.0% expansion.
Softer growth at the end of the year was primarily the result of more muted domestic demand, driven by a sharp moderation in fixed investment growth (Q4: +3.2% yoy; Q3: +8.3% yoy). Moreover, private consumption growth decelerated marginally to 3.2% in Q4 over the same quarter of the prior year (Q3: +3.3% yoy), despite a tighter labor market, rising wages, and strong retail sales throughout the quarter. Government consumption also weakened, expanding 3.3% in Q4 (Q3: +4.0% yoy).
The external sector improved in the fourth quarter, although it continued to drag on the headline print. Exports of goods and services gained strength, increasing 10.6% in Q4 (Q3: +9.3% yoy), despite signs of a weakening external environment and continued trade tensions with Kosovo. However, although imports moderated in Q4, they still outpaced exports at a pace of 10.9% (Q3: +11.4% yoy).
Moving forward, the economy is expected to soften in 2019. A weaker industrial sector and mounting external headwinds—mainly stemming from a slowdown in the Eurozone and global trade protectionism—will likely weigh on growth. Nevertheless, the loosening of fiscal spending restraints, which will result in higher pension payouts and a public wage hike, and continued consumer spending should see domestic demand remain at healthy levels in the year. Moreover, cooperation with the IMF through the Policy Coordination Instrument, which is a non-financial framework for macroeconomic reforms, and progress on reforms for EU accession should strengthen investor confidence and sustain FDI inflows.
The National Bank of Serbia projects the economy to grow 3.5% in 2019. Last month, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists also expected growth of 3.5% in 2019, which was unchanged from the prior month’s forecast, and 3.3% in 2020. New forecasts will be available in the 5 March publication.
Serbia - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||2.6||-1.8||0.8||2.8||1.9|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Serbia GDP Chart
|Bond Yield||3.70||0.0 %||Jan 30|
|Exchange Rate||103.1||-0.31 %||Jan 30|
|Stock Market||1,521||-0.44 %||Jan 30|
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April 12, 2019
According to the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, consumer prices rose 0.4% over the prior month in March, down from the 0.7% increase logged in February.
April 9, 2019
At its 9 April monetary policy meeting, the Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) voted to keep the key policy rate unchanged at 3.00%, where it has been for one year. Well-anchored inflation expectations were the key factor behind the Bank’s decision to hold the key policy rate at its latest meeting.
March 29, 2019
According to data released by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, industrial production rebounded 2.4% year-on-year in February from the 5.5% fall logged in January.
March 12, 2019
According to the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, consumer prices climbed 0.7% over the previous month in February, accelerating from the 0.4% increase logged in January.
March 7, 2019
At its 7 March monetary policy meeting, the Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) voted to keep the key policy rate steady at 3.00%, where it has been since April 2018. Sustained price stability was the main factor behind the Bank’s latest move to keep the key policy rate unchanged in March.