Economic Growth in Serbia
Serbia's economy recorded an average growth rate of -1.8% in the decade to 2024, compared to the 3.9% average for South-Eastern Europe. In 2024, real GDP growth was 3.9%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Serbia GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Serbia from 2024 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
Serbia GDP Data
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -1.0 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 3.9 |
GDP (USD bn) | 55.9 | 66.1 | 66.8 | 81.3 | 89.0 |
GDP (EUR bn) | 49.0 | 55.9 | 63.5 | 75.2 | 82.3 |
GDP (RSD bn) | 5,764 | 6,576 | 7,459 | 8,818 | 9,639 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.7 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 18.2 | 9.3 |
GDP grows at softest pace since late 2022 in Q1
GDP growth softens in Q1: Activity growth softened markedly in Q1, with GDP expanding 2.0% year on year (Q4 2024: +3.3 yoy)— the weakest result since Q4 2022. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic activity declined 0.6% in Q1, contrasting Q4's 1.1% expansion and marking the sharpest decrease since Q3 2022.
Downturn driven by moderating domestic and external sectors: The slowdown in annual GDP growth was driven by a softer rise in private consumption and exports, plus a decline in fixed investment. On the domestic front, private consumption growth eased to 1.7% in Q1 (Q4 2024: +3.8% yoy), while fixed investment contracted 1.0% in Q1 (Q4 2024: +1.1% yoy), marking the worst reading since Q4 2020. More positively, public spending rebounded, growing 0.5% in Q1 (Q4 2024: -0.3% yoy). On the external front, exports of goods and services growth waned to 7.5% (Q4 2024: +8.1% yoy), whereas imports of goods and services growth sped up to 11.5% in Q1 (Q4 2024: +7.1% yoy).
Annual GDP growth to cool on broad-based slowdown: Our panelists see annual GDP growth accelerating from current levels over 2025, though overall annual growth will likely fall below 2024 levels. The full-year slowdown will be broad-based, with softer growth in both domestic demand and exports. Heightened domestic political instability and rising international trade tensions pose downside risks.
Panelist insight: EIU analysts commented: “We have revised down our real GDP growth forecast for 2025 […] to take account of the negative impact of persistent domestic political instability and international economic uncertainty arising from rising protectionism. These will combine to dent private consumption and investment growth.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Serbian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 25 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Serbian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Serbian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Serbian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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