Private Consumption in Serbia
The Serbian economy recorded an average growth rate of 2.1% in private consumption in the decade to 2024, below the 5.2% average for South-Eastern Europe. In 2024, the growth of private consumption was4.2%. For more information on private consumption, visit our dedicated page.
Serbia Private consumption Chart
Note: This chart displays Private Consumption (annual variation in %) for Serbia from 2020 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.
Serbia Private consumption Data
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | -2.0 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 0.6 | 4.2 |
GDP growth ticks up in the second quarter
Economic momentum strengthens in Q2: GDP grew 2.1% in Q2 on an annual basis, above the flash estimate of 2.0% and Q1’s 1.9% print. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP rebounded, growing 1.1% in Q2 and contrasting the previous quarter's 0.6% decrease.
Spending drives the improvement: Private consumption growth accelerated to 3.0% year on year in Q2, up from a 1.6% expansion in Q1, thanks to solid gains in real wages and a tighter labor market. Moreover, government spending accelerated to a 3.7% expansion in Q2 (Q1: +0.5% yoy). That said, fixed investment contracted 4.0% in Q2, marking the worst result since Q2 2020 (Q1: -0.8% yoy). This downturn reflects a decline in construction activity, after sizeable construction projects under the National Investment Plan in 2023 and H1 2024 came to an end. On the external side, exports of goods and services growth fell to 4.6% in Q2, marking the worst result since Q1 2024 (Q1: +8.6% yoy). Lastly, imports of goods and services growth waned to 9.8% in Q2 (Q1: +11.3% yoy).
GDP outlook: Our panelists expect the economy to gain further traction in H2 as strong real wage gains aid household consumption. Still, over 2025 as a whole, GDP growth is forecast to moderate from 2024 as both domestic demand and exports cool.
Panelist insight: Mate Jelic, analyst at Erste Bank, said: “Private consumption should continue to support growth, due to double-digit nominal wage growth and strong consumption loan growth. Regarding investments, the question is to what extent can government infrastructure projects, related to the Expo 2027, replace and soften the blow from private investments decline and weaker FDI flows. Due to relatively solid industry performance in recent months, we expect another increase in inventories which could continue to have a strong positive effect on headline growth. On the external side, heightened global uncertainty continues to cast a shadow over external demand and general consumer and business sentiment” Analysts at the EIU commented: “GDP growth this year is likely to be slower than previously expected, at 2.8%, but will then accelerate to an average of around 4% in 2026-29 as the economy continues to catch up from its relatively low starting point and gets a further boost from the specialised Expo taking place in Belgrade in 2027.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Serbian private consumption projections for the next ten years from a panel of 13 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable private consumption forecast available for Serbian private consumption.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Serbian private consumption projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Serbian private consumption forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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