The economy is likely growing quickly so far in Q1 2023, but not by quite as much as it did last year. On the one hand, the non-oil PMI rose to a near eight-year high in February, boding well for the non-hydrocarbons sector. On the other hand, average oil production in January was down 2% compared to the same period last year and 7% compared to Q4 2022, boding poorly for the hydrocarbons sector. While the non-hydrocarbons sector continues to be supported by low inflation and the government’s Vision 2030 diversification reforms, the hydrocarbons sector has been hit by OPEC+ deciding in October 2022 to cut output quotas from November 2022 onward. Recent news suggests this bifurcation will remain ahead: In recent weeks, the government said the current OPEC+ deal would continue until the end of the year and then announced more than USD 50 billion of investments in local non-oil sector companies.
Saudi Arabia Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) Data
|Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %)||20.8||32.7||-11.1||-33.6||58.9|