GDP in Russia
Russia - GDP (billions of U.S. Dollars)
Growth jumps in 2018
According to a preliminary estimate by the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), the Russian economy gained momentum last year growing 2.3%, well above 2017’s 1.6% expansion. The reading comfortably overshot market expectations of a softer 1.9% increase and followed a sharp upward revision to construction figures in January, which has generated some uncertainty over the true state of play of the economy.
The acceleration was driven by a better performance from the external sector, while domestic dynamics were more tepid. Export growth rose to 6.3% in 2018 (2017: 5.5%), bolstered by a surge in hydrocarbon exports in the fourth quarter. However, a fresh round of production cuts came into effect in January, which will hamper momentum going forward. Meanwhile, import growth slowed dramatically from a 17.4% increase to a 3.8% expansion in 2018, eroded by the ruble’s stark depreciation in the year.
Domestic dynamics were more downbeat. Private consumption growth slid from 2017’s 3.2% to 2.2% last year. Souring sentiment—especially following the unpopular May decree, which laid out a hike in the retirement age and VAT increase—likely weighed on spending, as did a weak ruble. Government consumption also lost steam, as authorities pursued fiscal consolidation, while fixed investment growth fell to 1.5% in 2018 (2017: 6.5%). Sanctions and geopolitical-related uncertainties likely hurt sentiment.
Official figures from Rosstat are still not available for the fourth quarter and the organization also announced that revisions to quarterly data are scheduled to be released in March. The economy appears to be on a more solid footing than previously thought, and construction data was significantly revised in January from a 0.5% expansion in the first 11 months of the year to above 5.0% growth.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists are still taking the latest data into account. At this time, they project that Russia’s GDP will increase 1.4% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.7% in 2020.
Russia - GDP (USD bn) Data
|GDP (USD bn)||2,296||2,062||1,366||1,285||1,578|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||8.28||0.13 %||Mar 20|
|Exchange Rate||64.32||-0.12 %||Mar 20|
|Stock Market||2,504||-1.03 %||Mar 20|
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March 18, 2019
Industrial output growth gained steam in February, according to the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat).
March 15, 2019
Merchandise exports totaled USD 29.8 billion in January, which represented a 11.2% contraction from the USD 33.6 billion sum recorded in the same month of 2018.
March 6, 2019
In February, consumer prices rose 0.4% from the previous month, below the 1.0% increase recorded in January, which had marked the sharpest rise in three years.
March 1, 2019
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) produced by IHS Markit dipped from 50.9 in January to 50.1 in February, marking the third consecutive monthly drop and the weakest reading since September 2018.
February 25, 2019
Merchandise exports totaled USD 41.4 billion in December, which represented a 10.2% expansion from the USD 37.5 billion sum recorded in the same month of 2017.