Economic Growth in Russia
Over the last decade, Russia's GDP growth experienced fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, sanctions, and oil price volatility. The economy contracted in 2015-2016 due to declining oil prices and the impact of sanctions linked to the annexation of Crimea, recovering slightly thereafter. COVID-19 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine brought further downturns in 2020 and 2022, respectively. That said, the economy has performed much better than expected since 2023, thanks to war-related investment and government spending, and the country's ability to skirt Western sanctions by rerouting exports through unaffected countries, particularly in Asia.
In the year 2024, the economic growth in Russia was 4.34%, compared to 0.74% in 2014 and 4.08% in 2023. It averaged 1.45% over the last decade. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Russia GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Russia from 2014 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.
Russia GDP Data
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | -2.7 | 5.9 | -1.4 | 4.1 | 4.3 |
GDP (USD bn) | 1,489 | 1,828 | 2,243 | 2,062 | 2,166 |
GDP (EUR bn) | 1,306 | 1,546 | 2,134 | 1,907 | 2,003 |
GDP (RUB bn) | 107,658 | 134,727 | 156,941 | 176,414 | 201,152 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | -1.8 | 25.1 | 16.5 | 12.4 | 14.0 |
Economic growth eases in the second quarter of 2025
Economy cools in Q2: Russia's economy shifted into a lower gear as GDP expanded 1.1% in annual terms in Q2, following 1.4% growth in the previous quarter and marking the weakest result in over two years. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic output grew 0.4% in Q2, following a 0.6% contraction in the prior quarter.
Broad-based deterioration drags on GDP growth: Relative to the prior quarter's data, readings in Q2 worsened for the agricultural sector (+0.8% year on year vs +1.1% in Q1), the manufacturing sector (+3.8% vs +4.5% in Q1), the retail and wholesale trade sector (-2.0% vs -0.1% in Q1) and the public administration and defense sector (+5.3% vs +6.8% in Q1). In contrast, the reading for the real estate sector improved in Q2 (-0.4% vs -1.6% in Q1). The retail and wholesale trade sector felt the pinch of historically elevated interest rates and persistent labor shortages due to the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Moreover, the downturn in the public administration and defense sector hints at cooling wartime spending that had driven sturdy GDP growth in 2023–2024.
Economic growth to ease later in 2025: Our Consensus is for GDP growth to cool further in H2 compared to H1. Elevated interest rates and inflation, paired with labor shortages, should dent household budgets. Moreover, international sanctions plus soft oil prices should hit export revenues and government spending in turn. In 2025 as a whole, our panelists expect economic growth to hit a three-year low, dipping below the pre-pandemic 10-year average of 1.9%. Oil prices, sanctions on oil re-exports and peace negotiations will be key to track; a peace deal could imply some easing of trade restrictions and labor shortages.
Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, EIU analysts stated: “Our forecast is subject to significant risks, which are skewed to the downside, mostly over how long the war will last. Should it continue throughout the forecast period (most probably at a much lower intensity), then the potential for stagflation and a full-year recession within the next two years will be greatly increased, and ongoing commitment of state funding to the war would probably begin to have a deleterious impact on social projects and spending.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Russian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 35 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Russian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Russian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Russian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
Latest Global GDP News
-
Canada: Economy recovers in July GDP reading: GDP increased 0.2% in seasonally adjusted month-on-month terms in July, following a 0.1% fall in the previous month... -
Argentina: Economy slips into contraction in the second quarter of 2025 GDP reading: Argentina’s GDP was down 0.1% in seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms in Q2, following a 0.9% expansion in the... -
New Zealand: GDP shrinks far more than expected in Q2 GDP reading: The economy shrank by 0.9% in the second quarter in sequential terms, a much weaker result than markets... -
Uruguay: Economic growth decelerates in Q2 GDP growth cools in Q2: As expected, economic growth cooled to 2.1% on a year-on-year basis in Q2, down from... -
United Kingdom: Economy stagnates in July GDP reading: GDP flatlined on a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis in July, following a 0.4% increase in the prior month... -
Russia: Economic growth eases in the second quarter of 2025 Economy cools in Q2: Russia’s economy shifted into a lower gear as GDP expanded 1.1% in annual terms in Q2,... -
Ghana: Economic growth unchanged in Q2 GDP growth stable: GDP growth was unchanged year on year in the second quarter, matching Q1’s upwardly revised 6.3% figure...