Economic Growth in Russia
Over the last decade, Russia's GDP growth experienced fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, sanctions, and oil price volatility. The economy contracted in 2015-2016 due to declining oil prices and the impact of sanctions linked to the annexation of Crimea, recovering slightly thereafter. COVID-19 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine brought further downturns in 2020 and 2022, respectively. That said, the economy has performed much better than expected since 2023, thanks to war-related investment and government spending, and the country's ability to skirt Western sanctions by rerouting exports through unaffected countries, particularly in Asia.
The Russian economy recorded an average growth rate of 0.8% in the decade to 2022, below the 2.5% average for Eastern Europe. In 2022, real GDP growth was -2.1%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Russia GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Russia from 2014 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.
Russia GDP Data
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | -2.7 | 5.9 | -1.4 | 4.1 | 4.3 |
GDP (USD bn) | 1,489 | 1,828 | 2,243 | 2,062 | 2,166 |
GDP (EUR bn) | 1,306 | 1,546 | 2,134 | 1,907 | 2,003 |
GDP (RUB bn) | 107,658 | 134,727 | 156,941 | 176,414 | 201,152 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | -1.8 | 25.1 | 16.5 | 12.4 | 14.0 |
Economic growth plunges to a two-year low in Q1
War fatigue drives below-trend expansion: According to a preliminary reading, at the outset of 2025, the economy felt the strain of protracted war, sanctions, elevated interest rates and sky-high inflation, with annual economic growth plummeting to 1.4% in the first quarter. The reading fell short of Q4 2024’s 4.5% expansion, undershot the pre-Covid growth 10-year average of 1.9% and was among the weakest in the post-pandemic era, barring contractions in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Non-war economy weakens further: Absent a detailed breakdown, available monthly data suggests that the slowdown was broad-based in the non-war economy. On the production side, industrial output growth was the weakest since Q1 2023’s war-induced decline due to fresh declines in water supply and mining plus plummeting momentum in manufacturing. On the expenditure side, domestic demand likely remained subdued. Inflation averaged in the double digits for the first time in over two years, while nominal wage growth was around half of Q4 2024 levels in January–February. This, paired with historically elevated interest rates and persistent labor shortages, likely dented fixed investment and household spending; retail sales lost steam in Q1. On the external front, merchandise exports swung into contraction in Q1, depressed by recent Western sanctions on Russian oil, the country’s main export. Meanwhile, goods imports shrank, likely as a result of weaker domestic demand.
Economy to lose steam ahead; outlook contingent on peace talks: Our panelists expect the economy to regain slight momentum in the current quarter, though weaker oil prices denting government revenue and spending suggest downside risks to the prediction. Economic growth is then seen decelerating further in H2. As a result, our Consensus is for economic growth to more than halve from 2024 this year, dipping below the pre-pandemic 10-year average of 1.9%. War fatigue will outweigh the tailwinds from the war-related spending and investment that drove sturdy growth in 2023–2024. Drags will include elevated inflation and interest rates, labor shortages, sanctions and weaker export receipts. Still, the outlook hinges crucially on peace negotiations, which could imply some easing of trade restrictions and labor shortages.
Panelist insight: EIU analysts commented: “We forecast real GDP growth of 1.8% for full-year 2025. This falls short of the government's 2.5% target. Although peace talks may advance in the second half of 2025, any economic rebound will be constrained by structural issues. Domestic consumption will remain under pressure from high interest rates, while exports face continued challenges from sanctions and lower commodity prices. The combination of stagnant growth and high inflation will limit fiscal options and may force additional revenue-raising measures.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Russian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 35 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Russian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Russian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Russian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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