Inflation moderates as expected in April

Latest reading: Inflation inched down to 2.5% in April from March’s 2.6%, in line with market expectations and undershooting those of the Norges Bank. Looking at the details of the release, the figure was primarily driven by slower growth in prices for food, which outweighed faster rises in housing and transport costs. Accordingly, the trend pointed down, with annual average inflation falling to 2.7% in April (March: 2.8%). Meanwhile, core inflation dropped to 3.0% in April from March's 3.4%, below both markets’ and Norges Bank’s projections. Lastly, consumer prices rose 0.66% over the previous month in April, swinging from the 0.66% decline seen in March.

Outlook: Our Consensus is for inflation to rise from current levels on average through Q4 on healthier private spending growth, outpacing the Norges Bank’s 2.0% target for the fifth consecutive year in 2025 as a whole. Still, inflation will be below last year’s level, contained by elevated interest rates, softer wage growth and a high base of comparison. Premature monetary policy easing and a weaker krone are upside risks.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Norwegian inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 21 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for Norwegian inflation.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Norwegian inflation projections.

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