GDP in Nigeria
Nigeria - GDP
Economy shifts into lower gear at the start of 2019
Nigeria’s economy entered 2019 on a softer note, with GDP growth decelerating to 2.0% on an annual basis in the first quarter. This was below both what market analysts had expected and the fourth quarter’s 2.4% expansion, which had marked an over three-year high. The slowdown was driven by both weakening momentum in the non-oil segment of the economy and the vital oil sector contracting yet again.
Growth in the non-oil sector of the economy moderated in the first quarter, coming in at 2.5% annually (Q4: +2.7% year-on-year) and reflecting slower growth in both the industrial and services sectors. Industrial output growth practically stagnated in Q1, largely due to weaker gains in manufacturing production compared to Q4. Similarly, the services sector lost steam, with growth weighed on by softer activity in the information and communication, and trade industries. On the other hand, output in the agricultural sector picked up in Q1, buoyed by higher crop production.
Meanwhile, the all-important energy sector contracted for the fourth consecutive quarter in Q1. Activity in the oil sector fell 2.4% over the same period last year, after tumbling 1.6% in Q4 2018. This was despite oil production—which accounts for the lion’s share of the overall mining and quarrying sector output—recovering to a one-year high of 1.96 million barrels per day (mbpd) in Q1 (Q4: 1.91 mbpd) and rising global oil prices throughout the quarter.
Looking ahead, the ongoing recovery is expected to gather pace this year, supported by higher private consumption, which should be buoyed by the minimum wage hike, and healthy investment activity amid more accommodative monetary conditions and waning post-election uncertainty. The slow implementation of reforms, commodity-price volatility and potential disruptions to oil production pose key risks to the outlook.
Nigeria GDP Forecast
FocusEconomics panelists project that the economy will grow 2.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2020, growth is seen rising to 2.7%.
Nigeria - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||5.5||6.2||2.8||-1.6||0.8|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Nigeria GDP Chart
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
|Bond Yield||13.53||0.0 %||Jul 31|
|Exchange Rate||306.3||3.08 %||Jul 31|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Jul 31|
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August 16, 2019
Consumer prices rose 1.01% on a month-on-month basis in July, down marginally from June’s 1.07% climb.
August 5, 2019
The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) inched down from 54.8 in June to 54.6 in July.
July 23, 2019
At its 22–23 July meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) unanimously decided to leave the monetary policy rate as well as all other monetary policy parameters unchanged, in line with market expectations.
July 15, 2019
Consumer prices rose 1.07% on a month-on-month basis in June, down slightly from May’s 1.11% climb, which had marked the sharpest increase in nearly a year.
July 3, 2019
The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbed to 54.8 in June from 52.9 in May, which had marked the lowest reading since June 2017.