Money in Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan Money | Economic News & Forecasts

Kazakhstan - Money

Central Bank keeps rates unchanged in January

The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) decided to keep the base rate at 9.00% at its 25 January meeting, marking the third consecutive hold, after having cut it by 50 basis points in July 2020. Moreover, the rate corridor was kept at plus or minus 1.0 percentage point.

The Bank’s decision came despite the pandemic continuing to spark uncertainty, amid increases in domestic Covid-19 cases and the recent imposition of tougher restrictions in the EU, which could harm the external sector. However, the need to contain inflation—which has risen in recent months—and bring it back to the target band of 4–6%, as well as the threat of downward pressure on the tenge, did not leave any room for further cuts.

Going forward, the Bank struck a cautious tone, stating it would mainly consider “the actual dynamics of inflation” in its next decisions regarding the base rate. In short, it seems that the Bank will continue to prioritize price stability, and as such, if inflation is brought down closer to the target, the Bank could cut rates to spur activity.

On the outlook, Artem Zaigrin at SOVA Capital said:

“Passing the inflation spike could pave the way for NBK to cut rates starting from 2Q21. The dissipation of geopolitical risks could push the KZT/$ rate to 410 by YE21, we think.”

The Bank’s next policy rate decision is scheduled for 9 March.

FocusEconomics panelists see the base rate ending 2021 at 8.79% and 2022 at 8.52%.

Kazakhstan - Money Data

2015   2016   2017   2018   2019  
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)8.0  46.2  7.5  7.1  11.0  

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Kazakhstan Money Chart

Kazakhstan Money
Note: Money, annual variation of wide money in %.
Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate382.90.32 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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