GDP growth records best result since 2011 in January-June

Fastest GDP expansion in over a decade: According to preliminary estimates, annual GDP growth rose to 6.2% in January-June (Q1: +5.6% yoy), marking the fastest pace since 2011 and exceeding the 4.5% pre-pandemic 10-year average.

GDP growth driven by the tertiary sector: On the production side, the improvement was chiefly driven by the services sector, which expanded by 5.2% (Q1: +4.5% yoy) and was the main contributor to GDP growth. Wholesale and retail trade gained steam, while transportation and storage activities growth surged to the highest level since at least 2010. Moreover, the construction sector saw a sharper rise of 18.4% (Q1: +16.9% yoy)—its fastest since Q1 2008—likely buoyed by public infrastructure projects. Agricultural output growth also edged up to 3.7% (Q1: +3.4% yoy). In contrast, industrial production rose at a slower pace of 6.5% (Q1: +6.7% yoy) due to a cooling manufacturing sector. Still, it was the second-largest contributor to GDP growth, with mining and quarry growing at the fastest pace since Q4 2017 as Kazakhstan continued to exceed OPEC+ crude quotas in H1 following Chevron’s USD 48 billion Tengiz oilfield expansion.

Exports to lead economic acceleration in 2025: Our Consensus is for annual GDP growth to lose traction in the third quarter following four consecutive accelerations. Rising inflation and high interest rates will likely weigh on growth in Q3. Still, growth should remain above the 4.5% pre-pandemic 10-year average in H2. For 2025 as a whole, GDP growth is expected to edge up from 2024 given rising growth in public spending and exports. Crude and gas prices will be key to monitor, while heightened social unrest due to high public frustration over corruption, weak political oversight and low living standards is a downside risk.

Panelist insight: EIU analysts said: “We forecast that real GDP growth will accelerate [from 2024 in 2025]. Important growth drivers are increased oil production, fiscal stimulus, strong credit growth and expanded infrastructure investment. Headline inflation and interest rates, while below their 2023 peak levels, are elevated and have trended upwards since late 2024. We expect the lagged impact of tighter monetary policy and softening disposable income growth to dampen private spending gradually over the second half of 2025 and in 2026. Global instability and trade protectionism are constraining export performance, albeit partly offset by off-balance-sheet re-exporting of goods subject to sanctions to Russia.”

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