GDP in Japan
Japan - GDP (billions of U.S. Dollars)
Economy expands quicker than initially expected in Q4 2018 on stronger investment
Comprehensive data for the fourth quarter corroborated that the economy returned to growth after a barrage of natural disasters hit the country in the third quarter. According to revised data released by the Cabinet Office on 8 March, GDP rose 1.9% over the previous quarter in seasonally-adjusted annualized terms (SAAR), a stronger expansion than the 1.4% increase initially estimated (Q3: +2.4% SAAR). In annual terms, GDP expanded 0.3% in Q4, accelerating slightly from Q3’s 0.1% growth.
A stronger-than-expected rebound in investment led the overall acceleration in economic growth. Private non-residential investment expanded 11.3% in Q4, up from the preliminary estimate of a 9.8% increase. As a result, gross fixed capital formation rose a faster 6.6% in Q4 (previously reported: +6.1% SAAR). Conversely, growth in private consumption was weaker than initially reported, with a 1.6% increase (previously reported: +2.4% qoq SAAR), casting doubts over the sustainability of the recovery and questioning Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s reforms aimed at shoring up household spending. Growth in public spending and the contribution from the external sector were left broadly unchanged compared to the first estimate.
Looking forward, Takashi Miwa, an analyst at Nomura, notes that:
“Judging from core statistics, it appears quite likely that real exports and real consumer spending have been tracking on the weak side in 2019 Q1. Given that the rebound from real negative growth in 2018 Q3 has been less than impressive, we believe that Japanese real economic growth has likely fallen close to negative territory.”
The median GDP forecast among BoJ members is 0.9% for FY 2019 and 1.0% for FY 2020. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP expanding 0.9% in calendar year 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2020, the panel sees the economy growing 0.6%.
Japan - GDP (USD bn) Data
|GDP (USD bn)||5,107||4,876||4,388||4,976||4,836|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||-0.04||-4.41 %||Mar 20|
|Exchange Rate||110.7||-0.35 %||Mar 20|
|Stock Market||21,609||0.40 %||Mar 20|
Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.
Start Your Free Trial
Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.
March 22, 2019
The Nikkei flash manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was unchanged at February’s 48.9% (previously reported: 48.5) in March, the lowest level since July 2016.
March 22, 2019
The core consumer price index rose 0.2% in month-on-month seasonally-adjusted terms in February, matching January’s result. Core inflation inched down from January’s 0.8% to 0.7% in February.
March 15, 2019
At its 14–15 March meeting, Bank of Japan (BoJ) board members decided in a seven-to-two vote to keep its monetary policy unchanged, in line with market analysts’ expectations.
March 14, 2019
Core machinery orders, a leading indicator for capital spending over a three- to six-month period, posted the third monthly decline in a row, suggesting that capital expenditure will remain subdued in the coming months.
March 8, 2019
Comprehensive data for the fourth quarter corroborated that the economy returned to growth after a barrage of natural disasters hit the country in the third quarter.