GDP in Indonesia
Indonesia - GDP
Economy charts steady course in Q2 despite choppy external waters
The economy expanded 5.0% in Q2 2019, according to recent data released by Statistics Indonesia. This was down a notch from Q1’s 5.1% reading but matched market expectations.
Domestic demand had a strong showing. Private consumption expanded 5.2% (Q1: +5.0% yoy), likely supported by a solid labor market and mild inflation. Public consumption growth picked up amid election-related spending (Q2: +8.2% yoy; Q1: +5.2% yoy). However, fixed investment was sluggish by recent standards (Q2: +5.0% yoy; Q1: +5.0% yoy), likely due to the government’s restrictions on capital imports holding back infrastructure development.
The external sector continued to contribute to growth in the second quarter, although this was chiefly thanks to a further sharp decline in imports (Q2: -6.7% yoy; Q1: -7.4% yoy). Exports also fell, amid sagging global trade flows and U.S.-China tensions (Q2: -1.8% yoy; Q1: -1.9% yoy).
Looking to H2, our panelists see growth at close to its current level. Wage gains and mild price pressures should aid private consumption, while government spending should also be robust. However, the external environment will remain challenging, hampering exports.
Turning to 2020, analysts at Nomura are upbeat about prospects:
“The improvement we expect in growth next year will be supported by improving reform prospects, particularly on the business climate, given the re-election of President Jokowi to a second and final term with a stronger mandate, as well as the utilization of available fiscal space and steady progress on infrastructure projects.”
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP expanding 5.1% in 2019 and 5.2% in 2020.
Indonesia - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||5.6||5.0||4.9||5.0||5.1|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Indonesia GDP Chart
Source: Statistics Indonesia.
|Bond Yield||7.35||-0.05 %||Sep 04|
|Exchange Rate||14,153||0.05 %||Sep 04|
|Stock Market||6,270||-0.32 %||Sep 04|
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October 15, 2019
According to Statistics Indonesia, the country recorded a trade deficit of USD 0.2 billion in September, contrasting with market expectations of a surplus and driven by a much slower fall in imports.
October 9, 2019
In August, retail sales increased 1.1% year-on-year, below July’s 2.4% rise and falling short of the Central Bank’s initial estimate of 3.7%.
October 1, 2019
Conditions in Indonesia’s manufacturing sector worsened further in September, albeit at a slightly milder pace, with the PMI edging up to 49.1 from 49.0 in August according to the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released by IHS Markit.
October 1, 2019
Consumer prices decreased 0.27% in September over the prior month, contrasting August’s 0.12% increase.
September 19, 2019
At its 18–19 September monetary policy meeting, Bank Indonesia (BI) lowered the seven-day reverse repo rate from 5.50% to 5.25%.