Economic Growth in Hong Kong
Hong kong's economy recorded an average growth rate of 1.3% in the decade to 2024, compared to the 4.9% average for East & South Asia. In 2024, real GDP growth was 2.5%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Hong Kong GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Hong Kong from 2014 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.
Hong Kong GDP Data
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | -6.5 | 6.5 | -3.7 | 3.2 | 2.5 |
GDP (USD bn) | 345 | 369 | 359 | 381 | 407 |
GDP (HKD bn) | 2,676 | 2,868 | 2,809 | 2,983 | 3,175 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | -5.9 | 7.2 | -2.1 | 6.2 | 6.4 |
Economy records fastest growth since Q4 2023 in the first quarter
GDP reading: GDP growth sped up to 3.1% year on year in the first quarter from 2.5% in the fourth quarter of last year and marked the strongest expansion since Q4 2023. Rebounding fixed investment, higher tourism, and a surge in goods exports as firms front-loaded shipments ahead of looming U.S. tariffs underpinned the reading, while private consumption remained downbeat as Hong Kongers preferred to spend money on the mainland. On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth improved to 1.9% in Q1, compared to the previous quarter's 0.9% expansion.
Drivers: Private consumption fell 1.2% year on year in the first quarter, marking the fourth straight period of contraction. Government spending grew 1.2% (Q4 2024: +2.1% yoy). Meanwhile, fixed investment bounced back, growing 2.8% in Q1, contrasting the 0.7% decrease recorded in the previous quarter. Exports of services growth accelerated to 6.6% in Q1 (Q4 2024: +6.5% yoy). Conversely, imports of services growth moderated to 6.2% in Q1 (Q4 2024: +8.3% yoy). Exports and imports of goods growth rose sharply to 8.7% and 7.4% respectively, from 1.3% and 0.4% in the prior quarter.
Panelist insight: United Overseas Bank’s Ho Woei Chen commented on subdued private spending: “The change in local consumption pattern where residents choose to spend across the border is becoming more entrenched. Coupled with weaker purchasing power from mainland visitors, this will weigh on Hong Kong’s economic recovery prospects.” On exports, Nomura analysts said: “The robust performance in net exports was largely due to the front-loading of global trade ahead of Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs announced on 2 April and the vastly intensified tit-for-tat US-China trade war. However, as most of these tariffs became effective from 9 April, exports are likely to face significant challenges in the coming months.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Hong Kong GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 30 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Hong Kong GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Hong Kong GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Hong Kong GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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