Central Bank stands pat in June

Interest rates unchanged in June: On 25 June, the Central Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) left its key interest rate at 4.50%, where it has stood since November 2024.

Inflation and economic activity remain on track: The decision was driven by inflation staying below the floor of Banguat’s 3.0–5.0% target range once again in May, and by the outlook for price pressures remaining relatively stable. Still, Banguat suggested that risks to consumer prices remain skewed to the upside, and include conflict in the Middle East and rising global trade protectionism. Moreover, the Bank sees economic momentum as staying dynamic this year, and so deemed cuts unnecessary.

Most panelists see cuts resuming by year-end: In its latest release, Banguat provided no forward guidance on its future decisions. That said, a majority of our panelists expect between 25–100 basis points of further reductions by December, while a minority see rates stable through year-end. The Fed extending its monetary easing pause poses upside risks to interest rates, while lower-than-expected GDP growth in Guatemala off the back of Trump’s tariff hikes and immigration crackdown poses a downside risk. The Bank will reconvene on 27 August.

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