Economic activity surprises markets to the upside: According to a preliminary reading, GDP growth edged up to 4.5% year on...
Economic Growth in Guatemala
Guatemala's economy recorded an average growth rate of 3.6% in the decade to 2024, compared to the 2.9% average for Central America and Caribbean. In 2024, real GDP growth was 3.7%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Guatemala GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Guatemala from 2014 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.
Guatemala GDP Data
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | -1.8 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 3.7 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 77.7 | 86.4 | 95.6 | 104.3 | 113.1 |
| GDP (GTQ bn) | 600 | 669 | 741 | 817 | 878 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.0 | 11.4 | 10.8 | 10.3 | 7.4 |
GDP growth moderates in Q1
Economic momentum lost in Q1: Annual GDP growth lost momentum in the first quarter of this year, easing to 3.9% from Q4 2024’s 4.5% reading.
Domestic demand and exports lose steam: On the domestic front, household spending growth moderated to 4.0% in Q1 from a 6.2% expansion in Q4. Government consumption growth also cooled, to 5.9% (Q4 2024: +8.9% yoy). That said, fixed investment growth accelerated to 10.6%, following the 7.3% expansion logged in the prior quarter. On the external front, exports of goods and services growth fell to 3.1%, marking the worst result since Q1 2024 (Q4 2024: +5.1% yoy). Meanwhile, imports of goods and services growth slowed to 7.1% (Q4 2024: +10.9% yoy).
GDP growth to broadly stabilize in 2025 as a whole: Annual GDP growth is seen averaging below Q1’s level through year-end. That said, full-year growth is set to remain close to 2024 levels. Private consumption growth is seen slowing as U.S. trade and immigration policies will likely weigh on exports and remittances. Even so, exports growth is still projected to strengthen, and government spending is set to more than quadruple as the government seeks to prepare the economy for returning nationals as a result of the U.S. crackdown. Finally, fixed investment growth is seen ticking up from 2024 levels on lower interest rates.
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Guatemalan GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 18 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Guatemalan GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Guatemalan GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Guatemalan GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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