GDP per capita in Estonia
Estonia - GDP per capita (Euros)
GDP contracts for the first time in a decade
GDP shrank 0.7% in year-on-year terms in Q1 2020 (Q4 2019: +3.9 yoy), marking the first contraction since Q1 2010 as Covid-19 took its toll. Moreover, the economy contracted 3.7% quarter-on-quarter in seasonally-adjusted terms (Q4 2019: +0.9% qoq), the worst result since Q1 2009.
The first-quarter downturn was broad-based and predominantly driven by an increasing economic spillover from the pandemic. Domestic demand slipped in Q1 amid lockdown and social-distancing measures implemented in March, with fixed investment contracting for the first time in nearly two years (Q1 2020: -6.9% yoy, Q4 2019: +6.7% yoy) and private consumption growth plunging to nearly a decade low (Q1 2020: +0.5% yoy, Q4 2019: +2.2% yoy). In a similar fashion, government consumption dipped slightly in the same period (Q1 2020: -0.3% yoy, Q4 2019: 1.4% yoy), further weighing on the overall result.
On the external front, imports of goods and services plunged at the sharpest rate in over 10 years in the first quarter (Q1 2020: -5.2% yoy, Q4 2019: +0.3% yoy, reflecting dissipating domestic demand. In a similar fashion, eviscerated external demand due to widespread lockdown measures hammered exports of goods and services, which fell at the sharpest pace since Q4 2015 (Q1 2020: -2.6% yoy, Q4 2019: +0.5% yoy).
The economy is set to shrink considerably this year, pounded by the pandemic. Although economic activity is seen gradually recovering in H2 after an expected severe contraction in H1, both domestic demand and the external sector are expected to contract amid depressed business confidence, eviscerated external demand, curtailed tourism inflows and shattered consumer spending due to soaring unemployment and downbeat sentiment. A notable jump in public spending should cushion the overall downturn somewhat, however.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast project the economy to contract 6.6% in 2020, down 3.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2021, our panelists see GDP growing by 5.3%.
Estonia - GDP per capita (EUR) Data
|GDP per capita (EUR)||15,804||16,485||18,053||19,739||21,257|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Exchange Rate||1.12||0.65 %||Dec 31|
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July 31, 2020
Industrial output slid 5.5% year-on-year in seasonally- and calendar-adjusted in June, softening from May’s 17.6% plunge which had marked the steepest drop since October 2009. June's smaller drop was largely driven by a milder contraction in manufacturing production.
July 13, 2020
Consumer prices rose 0.91% from the previous month in June, contrasting May's 0.67% drop.
June 30, 2020
Industrial output slid 17.7% year-on-year in seasonally- and calendar-adjusted in May (April: -17.0%), according to data released by Statistics Estonia.
June 8, 2020
Consumer prices fell 0.67% from the previous month in May, following April's softer 0.4% drop.
May 29, 2020
Industrial production sank 16.9% year-on-year in April (March: -8.7% yoy).