Exports in Ecuador
The economy of Ecuador recorded an average exports growth rate of 1.2% in the decade to 2022. In 2022, exports growth was 2.5%. For more exports information, visit our dedicated page.
Ecuador Exports Chart
Note: This chart displays Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) for Ecuador from 2017 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.
Ecuador Exports Data
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) | -3.9 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 0.8 | 1.8 |
GDP shrinks at a milder pace in Q4
The economy remains in the doldrums in Q4: Seasonally adjusted GDP declined at a slower annual rate of 0.9% in Q4, improving from Q3’s 1.8% shrinkage but marking the fourth consecutive contraction. As a result, in 2024 as a whole, GDP fell 2.0% (2023: +2.0%), hampered by gang violence, the closure of wells in Block 43-ITT oil field, a VAT increase and the most severe drought in the last 60 years. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP bounced back, increasing 1.3% in Q4, contrasting the previous quarter's 0.3% decrease and marking the best result since Q2 2023.
Broad-based improvement capped by weaker private consumption growth: Domestically, the downturn in government expenditure eased to 0.8% in annual terms in Q4 (Q3: -1.0% yoy s.a.) on the back of spending ahead of presidential elections. The same was true of fixed investment amid lower interest rates, contracting at a softer rate of 2.6% in Q4 (Q3: -5.2% yoy s.a.). That said, private spending growth plunged to 0.2% (Q3: +3.0% yoy s.a.), hampered by frequent power outages triggered by the worst drought in the last 60 years. On the external front, exports of goods and services bounced back, growing 3.5% year on year in the fourth quarter (Q3: -4.8% yoy s.a.), likely boosted by the Ecuador-China free trade agreement that came into effect a few months prior. Meanwhile, imports of goods and services growth sped up to 3.7% in Q4 (Q3: +1.8% yoy s.a.).
GDP to rebound but remain weak: Our panelists have penciled in a rebound for Q1, likely bolstered by the disbursement of USD 500 million from the IMF and pre-election government spending. In 2025 as a whole, our Consensus is for the economy to return to growth following 2024’s decline due to rebounds across all domestic demand components. That said, growth will remain below its pre-pandemic decade average of 3.6% and among the weakest in Latin America, and higher-than-expected U.S. import tariffs and lower-than-expected oil prices are downside risks.
Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, Goldman Sachs’s Sergio Armella stated: “Looking ahead, we expect growth to strengthen in 2025. […] Headwinds from lower global growth, weaker terms of trades due to lower oil prices, and a need for further fiscal consolidation are a downside risk to activity. Following the election results, however, we expect policy uncertainty to decline which could support firmer consumption and investment.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Ecuadorian exports projections for the next ten years from a panel of 9 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable exports forecast available for Ecuadorian exports.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Ecuadorian exports projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Ecuadorian exports forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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