Near 20-year high interest rates take a toll on GDP growth: As projected by our Consensus, sequential GDP growth lost...
Economic Growth in Chile
Chile's GDP growth over the last decade was much slower than in the 2000s. The economy experienced steady—albeit muted—growth until 2019. However, the 2019 social unrest and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic disrupted this trajectory, causing a significant economic contraction. Recovery began in 2021, fueled by rising copper prices and government stimulus measures, though growth slipped back into a moderate growth trajectory from 2022, capped by a recent lack of market-friendly structural reforms.
In the year 2024, the economic growth in Chile was 2.64%, compared to 1.79% in 2014 and 0.52% in 2023. It averaged 2.02% over the last decade. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Chile GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Chile from 2017 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.
Chile GDP Data
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | -6.1 | 11.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 2.6 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 254 | 315 | 301 | 335 | 330 |
| GDP (CLP bn) | 201,258 | 239,418 | 263,065 | 281,857 | 311,631 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.9 | 19.0 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 10.6 |
GDP growth improves in Q1
GDP reading: GDP growth gathered steam to 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter basis in the first quarter, from 0.5% in the fourth quarter of last year. The Q1 reading was slightly above the estimate based on monthly economic activity data.
Broad-based expansion: Household spending growth accelerated to 1.0% seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter, which marked the best reading since Q3 2021 (Q4 2024: +0.8% s.a. qoq). Government spending surged 8.8% (Q4 2024: -5.5% s.a. qoq). Meanwhile, fixed investment flatlined in Q1 (Q4 2024: +0.4% s.a. qoq). On the external front, exports of goods and services growth sped up to 2.6% in Q1 (Q4 2024: +1.2% s.a. qoq). Conversely, imports of goods and services growth moderated to 1.2% in Q1 (Q4 2024: +5.6% s.a. qoq).
GDP outlook: Economic growth is set to slow somewhat later this year, partly as the Q1 jump in government spending is unlikely to prove sustainable given the conservative 2025 budget.
Panelist insight: On the outlook, Itaú Unibanco analysts said: “Imports of capital goods remain upbeat, private sentiment has registered only a mild dent following the swings in global trade tensions, and copper prices have remained resilient, providing optimism that the investment recovery expected this year will materialize. Above-historical real wage growth and a continued external boost from Argentinian tourism has provided a solid platform for growth this year. While we expect public expenditure to adjust as the year unfolds, risks tilt toward overall expenditure in the year above the official forecast of 2.3% real growth.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Chilean GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 47 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Chilean GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Chilean GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Chilean GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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