Inventories flatter GDP reading: According to a preliminary reading, GDP bounced back 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter...
Economic Growth in Chile
Chile's GDP growth over the last decade was much slower than in the 2000s. The economy experienced steady—albeit muted—growth until 2019. However, the 2019 social unrest and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic disrupted this trajectory, causing a significant economic contraction. Recovery began in 2021, fueled by rising copper prices and government stimulus measures, though growth slipped back into a moderate growth trajectory from 2022, capped by a recent lack of market-friendly structural reforms. The Chilean economy recorded an average growth rate of 2.3% in the decade to 2022, above the 1.3% average for Latin America. In 2022, real GDP growth was 2.4%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Chile GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Chile from 2017 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.
Chile GDP Data
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | -6.1 | 11.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 2.6 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 254 | 315 | 301 | 335 | 330 |
| GDP (CLP bn) | 201,258 | 239,418 | 263,065 | 281,857 | 311,631 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.9 | 19.0 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 10.6 |
Economic growth slows in Q4
GDP reading: GDP growth moderated to 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter basis in the final quarter of 2024 from 1.5% in the third quarter. The figure was in line with the estimate derived from monthly economic activity data. On an annual basis, economic growth accelerated to 4.0% in Q4, up from the previous period's 2.0% increase.
Drivers: Private consumption growth improved to 0.8% seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter in Q1 (Q3: +0.1% s.a. qoq). Public consumption dropped 4.7% (Q3: +1.7% s.a. qoq). Fixed investment growth fell to 0.7% in Q4 (Q3: +1.1% s.a. qoq). On the external front, exports of goods and services contracted 1.1% in Q4 (Q3: +3.2% s.a. qoq). Conversely, imports of goods and services growth sped up to 5.7% in Q4 (Q3: +2.1% s.a. qoq).
GDP outlook: Our Consensus is for a slight acceleration in GDP growth in Q1 from the Q4 outturn, boosted by past interest rate reducations.
Panelist insight: On the outlook for 2025, EIU analysts said: “We forecast that real GDP will grow by 2.3% in 2025. Although the economy will benefit from stronger credit growth to consumers and investors as the lower policy rate filters down to consumer and commercial interest rates, this will partly be offset by anaemic employment growth and high levels of labour informality. Another factor that will preclude higher private consumption growth will be rising electricity prices, which will weigh on consumers' income.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Chilean GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 47 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Chilean GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Chilean GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Chilean GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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