Inflation in Bulgaria
Consumer price inflation in Bulgaria averaged 3.4% in the ten years to 2024, in line with the South-Eastern Europe regional average of 15.2%. The 2024 average figure was 2.4%. For more information on inflation, visit our dedicated page.
Bulgaria Inflation Chart
Note: This chart displays Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) for Bulgaria from 2024 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
Bulgaria Inflation Data
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.7 | 3.3 | 15.3 | 9.5 | 2.4 |
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) | 0.1 | 7.8 | 16.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 |
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) | -2.0 | 15.3 | 37.3 | -9.0 | -2.9 |
Inflation picks up in July
Latest reading: Inflation came in at 5.3% in July, up from June’s 4.4% and hitting the highest inflation rate since November 2023. Price pressures for food—representing roughly a third of the consumer basket—rose for the seventh consecutive month, accelerating at the quickest pace in nearly two years, in line with the ongoing impact of the restoration of standard VAT rates on bread, flour, restaurants and catering in January. Moreover, price growth for housing and utilities strengthened from June, and prices for transport fell at a softer rate. The trend pointed up, with annual average inflation coming in at 3.2% in July (June: 2.9%). Meanwhile, harmonized inflation rose to 3.4% in July from June’s 3.1%. Lastly, consumer prices increased 1.69% in July over the previous month, picking up from June's 0.44% rise. July's figure was the highest reading since January.
Panelist insight: EIU analysts commented on the outlook: “We expect inflation to ease in the coming months, supported by the euro's (and thus the lev's) appreciation, which is lowering imported price pressures, and by the EU-US trade agreement, which means that we do not expect retaliatory EU tariffs. Weaker than expected growth in 2025—particularly driven by a slowdown across the EU—could lead to lower than expected inflation.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Bulgarian inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 16 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for Bulgarian inflation.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Bulgarian inflation projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Bulgarian inflation forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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