Economy grows at a steady pace in Q2

GDP growth at par with Q1’s pace: Preliminary data revealed that seasonally adjusted year-on-year GDP growth remained at Q1’s 3.1% in Q2. Still, growth remained robust, coming in above the post-pandemic average. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth inched up to 0.7% in Q2 from Q1’s 0.6%.

Steady growth despite export decline: Preliminary data showed that on a seasonally adjusted year-on-year basis, final consumption grew 6.5% in Q2 (Q1: +7.1% yoy), while fixed investment rose 6.7% (Q1: +7.4% yoy). Meanwhile, exports of goods and services fell 4.9% in Q2 (Q1: -3.3% yoy), while imports of goods and services swung into a 0.6% decline (Q1: +4.6% yoy).

Panelist insight: EIU analysts said: “Bulgarian economic growth is projected to remain among the strongest in the EU in 2025-29, underpinned by robust real wage gains and rising investment. […] The formation of a new government in January, following a prolonged period of political uncertainty, is likely to accelerate the absorption of EU funds and boost public spending. […] We are in the process of revising up our forecast for real GDP growth [in 2025], supported by strong private consumption and a rebound in investment.”

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Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Bulgarian government consumption projections.

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