Economic Growth in Bulgaria
Bulgaria's economy recorded an average growth rate of 2.7% in the decade to 2024, compared to the 2.8% average for South-Eastern Europe. In 2024, real GDP growth was 2.8%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Bulgaria GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Bulgaria from 2014 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.
Bulgaria GDP Data
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.2 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 2.8 |
GDP (USD bn) | 70.6 | 84.4 | 90.5 | 102.4 | 112.2 |
GDP (EUR bn) | 61.9 | 71.4 | 86.1 | 94.7 | 103.7 |
GDP (BGN bn) | 121 | 140 | 168 | 185 | 203 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.0 | 15.3 | 20.6 | 10.0 | 9.5 |
GDP growth wanes in Q1
Economy starts the year on softer footing: GDP growth slowed to 3.1% year on year in the first quarter of 2025 on a seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis, from 3.4% in the fourth quarter of last year. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth waned to 0.6% in Q1, compared to the previous period's 0.9% increase and marking the lowest reading since Q4 2023.
External sector fuels deceleration: Domestic demand supported overall growth, rising at the quickest pace in three years. Household spending increased 7.2% year on year in Q1 from a 6.0% expansion in Q4. Public consumption, meanwhile, grew 7.4% in Q1 (Q4 2024: +7.1% yoy). Lastly, fixed investment growth surged to 7.9% in Q1 from the prior quarter’s 1.4%, marking the best reading since Q3 2023. Meanwhile, the external sector drove Q1’s moderation in annual GDP growth. Exports of goods and services slid at a steeper pace of 3.2% in Q1 (Q4 2024: -1.7% yoy). Conversely, imports of goods and services growth sped up to 4.6% in Q1 (Q4 2024: +2.2% yoy), marking the best performance in over two years.
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Bulgarian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 25 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Bulgarian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Bulgarian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Bulgarian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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