Angolan oil production edges up in August

Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 67.61 per barrel in September, up 0.5% from August. On 30 September, the commodity traded at USD 67.08 per barrel, down 1.6% from 29 August. Further OPEC+ output hikes dented oil prices. On the production front, Angolan oil output ticked up to 1.03 million barrels per day (mbpd) in August from 1.00 mbpd in July, underperforming the 1.09 mbpd that had been expected by the national oil firm ANPG. The reading remained well below the 2015–2024 average of 1.39 mbpd.

Outlook: Our Consensus is for oil output to fall from 2024’s average in 2025 due to recurring maintenance at major wells and aging fields. That said, crude production should ramp up gradually from current levels through 2029. Supporting the short-term outlook, TotalEnergies recently kickstarted output at two offshore projects, adding 60,000 bpd. Moreover, Eni began production in recent months at the Agogo IWH offshore development, which is expected to reach 180,000 bpd at full capacity. In the medium and long term, continued exploration efforts and ongoing investments are projected to gradually increase crude output. Softer-than-expected global demand driven by rising trade tensions remains a key downside risk.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Angolan oil projections for the next ten years from a panel of 4 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable oil forecast available for Angolan oil.

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