Angolan crude output drops to an over two-year low in April

Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 66.93 per barrel in April, down 6.7% from March. On 30 April, the commodity traded at USD 64.33 per barrel, down 14.0% from 31 March. Trump’s announcement of “reciprocal” tariffs weighed on the commodity. On the production front, Angolan oil output dropped to 1.00 million barrels per day (mbpd) in April from March’s 1.04 mbpd, marking the lowest result since March 2023 and underperforming the 1.09 mbpd that had been expected by the national oil firm ANPG. The reading also moved further below the 2015–2024 average of 1.39 mbpd. In other news, a fire broke out at a Chevron-operated oil platform at an offshore site in Angola in mid-May, injuring several people, some fatally. Still, no output loss is expected given that the plant was undergoing maintenance.

Outlook: Our panel sees crude output ramping up by December and averaging a five-year high in 2025 as a whole, bolstered by recovering investor interest in Angola’s hydrocarbons sector following the country’s exit from OPEC in late 2023. In particular, new TotalEnergies projects and rising capacity at the Begonia refinery plus government efforts to revamp the energy sector through the implementation of its 2020–2025 Hydrogen Exploration strategy should boost production. Still, oil output should remain below its past-decade average through our forecast horizon in 2029 due to maturing oil fields following years of underinvestment. Weaker-than-expected demand from China is a downside risk.

Panelist insight: Analysts at the EIU commented: “Angola's economy remains highly vulnerable to global oil market developments. International oil prices have declined to levels below those on which the Angolan authorities based their fiscal revenue assumptions for 2025, putting pressure on government finances in that year. We expect oil production to stagnate in 2025, at 1.03m barrels/day (b/d), below the authorities' target of 1.1m b/d, which has been in place since Angola left OPEC in January 2024. This is due to maintenance works on maturing wells alongside a structural decline in foreign direct investment into the energy sector.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Angolan oil projections for the next ten years from a panel of 4 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable oil forecast available for Angolan oil.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Angolan oil projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Angolan oil forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.