Angolan crude output falls in June

Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 69.85 per barrel in June, up 9.0% from May. On 30 June, the commodity traded at USD 67.65 per barrel, up 5.8% from 30 May. Israel and the U.S. bombed Iranian nuclear facilities, raising both the risk of a wider conflict in the Middle East plus the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran. On the production front, Angolan oil output fell to 1.00 million barrels per day (mbpd) in June from May’s 1.02 mbpd, below the 1.03 mbpd expected by national oil firm ANPG. Production remains well below the 2015–2024 average of 1.39 mbpd.

Outlook: In recent months, our panelists reduced their 2025 oil output forecasts due to delays in new projects. Consequently, oil production is now seen falling slightly from 2024’s average and remaining below its past-decade average through 2029, hampered by maturing oil fields and years of underinvestment. However, recovering investor interest in Angola’s hydrocarbons sector following the country’s exit from OPEC+ and government efforts to revamp the energy sector—via Angola’s 2020–2025 Hydrogen Exploration strategy—should cap the downturn. Weaker-than-expected demand from China poses a downside risk.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Angolan oil projections for the next ten years from a panel of 4 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable oil forecast available for Angolan oil.

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