Algeria External Debt (USD bn)

After coming in at 2.4% on average in H1 2022, economic growth is expected to have accelerated in H2 2022. Oil production growth remained strong in H2 at 8.5%, while merchandise exports grew at a slightly faster rate in Q3 compared to H1. Heading into 2023, the picture appears mixed. On the one hand, the hikes to pensions and unemployment benefits made in the 2023 budget are likely supporting private spending. On the other hand, for the second month running, oil production stagnated in January compared to the prior month. Given that the base effect in 2023 is tougher than last year, this stagnation in oil production bodes poorly for year-on-year economic growth. Adding to these downbeat developments, natural gas exports to Europe fell year on year in January–February, according to estimates from Bruegel.