Inflation falls to over one-year low in July

Latest reading: Inflation inched down to 4.5% in July from June’s 4.6%, marking the weakest inflation rate since May 2024. Moreover, this was the fourth consecutive decline, confirming a downward trend toward the midpoint of the Central Bank’s 3.0–6.0% inflation target range. The downtick was due to softer price pressures for housing and utilities plus transportation. In contrast, food costs rose at a faster clip. Accordingly, the trend pointed down mildly, with annual average inflation coming in at 5.1% in July (June: 5.2%). Lastly, consumer prices increased 0.05% in July over the previous month, rebounding from June's 0.09% fall.

Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, EIU analysts stated: “We expect disinflation to be gradual […] because the government will raise minimum salaries, pensions and wage increases in collective bargaining agreements […]. Upward risks to Uruguay's inflation dynamics include adverse climate conditions, such as a drought, which would lead to a rise in price pressures at some point in the forecast period.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Uruguayan inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 17 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for Uruguayan inflation.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Uruguayan inflation projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Uruguayan inflation forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.