GDP reading: Mexico’s GDP declined 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in Q3, following a 0.6% expansion in the...
Economic Growth in Mexico
Mexico's GDP growth over the last decade was moderate by emerging market standards, constrained by structural challenges and policy uncertainties. The economy benefited from its proximity to the United States but faced headwinds from a lack of structural reforms and an ambivalent stance towards the private sector under President Obrador. Post-pandemic the economy has benefitted from a recovery in tourism, strong remittances and exports, and state investment in large infrastructure projects such as the Maya Train and a new airport.
In the year 2024, the economic growth in Mexico was 1.45%, compared to 2.50% in 2014 and 3.35% in 2023. It averaged 1.51% over the last decade. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Mexico GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Mexico from 2014 to 2025.
Source: Macrobond.
Mexico GDP Data
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -8.4 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 1,121 | 1,316 | 1,467 | 1,800 | 1,855 |
| GDP (MXN bn) | 24,087 | 26,690 | 29,526 | 31,936 | 33,981 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | -4.1 | 10.8 | 10.6 | 8.2 | 6.4 |
Economy slips into contraction in the third quarter of 2025
GDP reading: Mexico's GDP declined 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in Q3, following a 0.6% expansion in the prior quarter and in line with market expectations.
Drivers: Relative to the previous quarter's data, readings in Q3 worsened for the services sector (+0.1% in seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms vs +0.8% in Q2) and the industrial sector (-1.5% vs +0.7% in Q2). In contrast, the reading for the primary sector improved in Q3 (+3.2% vs -2.4% in Q2). In annual terms, economic output shrank 0.2% in Q3, following a flat reading in the prior quarter.
Panelist insight: On the data and outlook, Itaú Unibanco analysts said: “Activity expectedly decelerated in the second half of the year, with a statistical carry-over for 2025 at 0.6%. This behavior was already anticipated, after a very strong 2Q25. Looking ahead, we expect Mexico’s growth to continue receiving some support from external factors, but these will become less relevant, compared to the beginning of this year. The outlook for domestically driven sectors will remain mixed, with a slowdown in local services and a contraction in investment. However, investment could continue to show signs of improvement, based on the start of public projects, such as railways construction and road maintenance.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Mexican GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 54 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Mexican GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Mexican GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Mexican GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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