Underlying picture less positive than headline reading: GDP growth improved to 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter basis...
Economic Growth in Mexico
Mexico's GDP growth over the last decade was moderate by emerging market standards, constrained by structural challenges and policy uncertainties. The economy benefited from its proximity to the United States but faced headwinds from a lack of structural reforms and an ambivalent stance towards the private sector under President Obrador. Post-pandemic the economy has benefitted from a recovery in tourism, strong remittances and exports, and state investment in large infrastructure projects such as the Maya Train and a new airport.
The Mexican economy recorded an average growth rate of 1.2% in the decade to 2022, below the 1.3% average for Latin America. In 2022, real GDP growth was 3.9%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Mexico GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Mexico from 2024 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
Mexico GDP Data
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -8.4 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 1,121 | 1,316 | 1,467 | 1,795 | 1,851 |
| GDP (MXN bn) | 24,087 | 26,690 | 29,516 | 31,856 | 33,914 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | -4.1 | 10.8 | 10.6 | 7.9 | 6.5 |
The economy bounces back in Q1, powered by the agricultural sector
GDP reading: According to a preliminary estimate, economic activity rebounded 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter basis in the first quarter, contrasting the 0.6% contraction tallied in Q4 and beating market expectations. On an annual basis, economic growth edged up to 0.8% in Q1 from the previous period's 0.5% expansion.
Agriculture was the only sector to expand in Q1: A large jump in the agricultural sector (8.1% s.a. qoq) drove the Q1 expansion. In contrast the services sector stagnated, while industrial output fell 0.3%. Government spending restraint, U.S. tariffs imposed on Mexico in March and the threat of more tariffs to come likely all dampened the services and industrial sectors. That said, some front-loading of exports to the U.S. could have provided support to the economy in Q1.
Panelist insight: On the outlook, Goldman Sachs’ Alberto Ramos said: “Going forward, real activity is likely to face headwinds from post-election policy uncertainty, a negative fiscal impulse, and soft business confidence. On the positive side, household spending is likely to continue to benefit from still firm credit flows and solid wage growth (including generous minimum wage increases). Public investment (public works) is expected to soften given the need for fiscal consolidation, and private investment to be impacted by both domestic and external uncertainty, in particular with regard to the US trade-policy (tariffs) and the outcome of the USMCA review.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Mexican GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 54 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Mexican GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Mexican GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Mexican GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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