Economic Growth in India
India's GDP growth over the last decade was among the fastest globally, driven by strong domestic consumption and services sector growth, despite short-term disruptions caused by policy changes like demonetization and GST implementation. The COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted the economy in 2020, but India demonstrated a strong expansion in 2021-2024. The country benefited from favorable demographics, political stability, foreign firms' desire to diversify supply chains away from China, and structural reforms.
In the year 2023, the economic growth in India was 9.19%, compared to 6.39% in 2013 and 7.61% in 2022. It averaged 6.17% over the last decade. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
India GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for India from 2013 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
India GDP Data
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | -5.8 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 6.5 |
GDP (USD bn) | 2,674 | 3,167 | 3,347 | 3,639 | 3,911 |
GDP (INR bn) | 198,541 | 235,974 | 268,905 | 301,230 | 330,681 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | -1.2 | 18.9 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 9.8 |
Agriculture (ann. var. %) | 4.0 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 4.6 |
Services (ann. var. %) | -8.4 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 9.0 | 7.2 |
GDP growth records best result in a year in January–March
Economy tops expectations: GDP growth gathered momentum to 7.4% year on year in January–March, up from 6.4% in October–December and marking the fastest expansion in a year. The reading topped market expectations and was bolstered by an upswing in investment and net trade. The print means GDP grew 6.5% over FY 2024, weaker than the 6.9% per year average expansion seen in the 10 years before the pandemic.
Fixed investment and net trade drive upturn: Fixed investment growth picked up to 9.4%, following the 5.2% increase recorded in the previous quarter. Moreover, the contribution to GDP of net trade rose from 2.8 percentage points to 3.7 percentage points. The stronger net trade position was driven by a steeper 12.7% fall in imports of goods and services (October–December 2024: -2.1% yoy), marking the worst reading since Q3 2020; the sharper decline outweighed the impact of growth of exports of goods and services slowing to 3.9% from October–December 2024's 10.8% expansion. Less positively, private consumption growth fell to 6.0%, marking the weakest expansion since October–December 2023 (October–December 2024: +8.1% yoy). Government spending dropped 1.8% (October–December 2024: +9.3% yoy), largely due to a constitutional freeze on spending ahead of February’s elections.
Panelist insight: EIU analysts commented: “We maintain our forecast for real GDP growth to soften further to 6.2% in 2025/26, given our expectations for a more challenging external environment and only a gradual recovery in private investment. The central bank’s ongoing monetary policy easing, income tax cuts and continued public infrastructure spending will provide a backstop for growth.” Nomura’s Aurodeep Nandi and Sonal Varma said: “We revise up our FY26 GDP growth forecast to 6.2% y-o-y (5.8% earlier) vs 6.5% in FY25, below the RBI’s estimate (6.5%). We believe growth is in a downtrend, due to weak urban consumption, slow private capex, weak global trade, and an influx of Chinese imports. Low inflation, accommodative policies and good monsoons are positive.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Indian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 49 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Indian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Indian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Indian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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