Central Bank remains on hold: At its meeting on 17–18 July, the Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of...
Policy Interest Rate in Guatemala
The Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) ended 2024 at 4.50%, down from the 5.00% end-2024 value and up from the reading of 4.00% a decade earlier. For reference, the average interest rate in Central America and Caribbean was 4.95% at end-2024. For more information on interest rate, visit our dedicated page.
Guatemala Interest Rate Chart
Note: This chart displays Policy Interest Rate (%) for Guatemala from 2024 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
Guatemala Interest Rate Data
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 1.75 | 1.75 | 3.75 | 5.00 | 4.50 |
Central Bank stands pat in June
Interest rates unchanged in June: On 25 June, the Central Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) left its key interest rate at 4.50%, where it has stood since November 2024.
Inflation and economic activity remain on track: The decision was driven by inflation staying below the floor of Banguat’s 3.0–5.0% target range once again in May, and by the outlook for price pressures remaining relatively stable. Still, Banguat suggested that risks to consumer prices remain skewed to the upside, and include conflict in the Middle East and rising global trade protectionism. Moreover, the Bank sees economic momentum as staying dynamic this year, and so deemed cuts unnecessary.
Most panelists see cuts resuming by year-end: In its latest release, Banguat provided no forward guidance on its future decisions. That said, a majority of our panelists expect between 25–100 basis points of further reductions by December, while a minority see rates stable through year-end. The Fed extending its monetary easing pause poses upside risks to interest rates, while lower-than-expected GDP growth in Guatemala off the back of Trump’s tariff hikes and immigration crackdown poses a downside risk. The Bank will reconvene on 27 August.
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Guatemalan interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 6 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Guatemalan interest rate.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Guatemalan interest rate projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Guatemalan interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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