Inflation falls to lowest level since December 2021 in June

Latest reading: Inflation eased to 13.7% in June, down from May’s 18.4%. June's result marked the lowest inflation rate since December 2021. The decline was broad-based, with reduced price pressures recorded for food and beverages plus clothing and footwear. Transport prices also fell in June. Meanwhile, annual average inflation fell to 21.1% in June (May: 21.9%). Consumer prices fell 1.20% over the previous month in June, swinging from the 0.72% increase seen in May. June's result marked the sharpest fall in prices since March 2023.

Outlook: Our Consensus is for inflation to ease throughout the rest of the year, but remaining above the Central Bank’s 6.0–10.0% target range. Our panelists expect 2025 inflation to fall sharply from 2024’s level: The cedi’s appreciation of over 40% vs the USD since the beginning of the year off the back of growing gold reserves and IMF-backed fiscal reforms will drive the moderation. That said, average inflation is set to exceed both the Sub-Saharan African 2025 average and the Central Bank’s target, the latter for a fourth straight year. Volatile commodity prices amid ongoing global trade tensions are a two-sided risk.

Panelist insight: Oxford Economics’ Pierre Delage commented on the performance of the cedi and its impact on inflation: “The cedi has emerged as one of the world's top-performing currencies against the dollar. The strong local unit has contributed to notably lower consumer price pressures over the past few months […] CPI inflation has slowed substantially over the past six months, reaching its lowest level in 3.5 years last month. We expect inflation to decline further throughout H2 2025, potentially dipping below 10% y/y by the end of this year.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Ghanaian inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 17 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for Ghanaian inflation.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Ghanaian inflation projections.

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