GDP growth improves in Q1

The economy starts the year on a stronger footing: GDP growth rose to 5.3% year on year in the first quarter of 2025, picking up from Q4’s 3.6% expansion. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth also gained momentum, expanding 1.4% in Q1, accelerating from 0.9% in the previous period.

Growth driven by public spending and cocoa, gold exports: Annual GDP growth rose on the back of upticks in household and government spending, along with stronger exports. On the domestic front, household spending grew 4.0% year on year in Q1 (Q4 2024: +3.9% yoy), while public consumption surged to over two-year high of 8.2% (Q4 2024: +2.3% yoy). Meanwhile, total investment growth slowed sharply to 1.1% in Q1 (Q4 2024: +14.1% yoy), marking the worst reading since Q4 2023. Externally, exports of goods and services jumped 13.9% in Q1 (Q4 2024: +2.7% yoy), as cocoa shipments surged and gold demand increased amid global uncertainty. Imports of goods and services also rose, growing 7.3% in Q1 (Q4 2024: +7.0% yoy).

GDP growth to soften this year: Our panelists see the economy growing at a slower pace in the coming quarters, with annual GDP growth coming in below 2024 levels in 2025 as a whole on a high base effect. Public spending and fixed investment growth are projected to slow in 2025 as a result of fiscal consolidation. Export growth is also set to soften, despite rising gold and oil output. More positively, private spending should grow at a faster clip. Meanwhile, recent debt restructuring measures should improve investor sentiment and unlock IMF funding, boding well for the economy. Adverse weather affecting the cocoa harvest poses a downside risk to GDP growth.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Ghanaian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 18 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Ghanaian GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Ghanaian GDP projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Ghanaian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.