Inflation inches further above target in April

Latest reading: Inflation inched up to 5.2% in April, slightly above March’s 5.1%. The reading outpaced market expectations and moved further above the Central Bank’s 2.0–4.0% target. Looking at the details of the release, hospitality and transport costs picked up pace, outweighing softer rises in food and housing prices. Still, the trend pointed down mildly, with annual average inflation coming in at 5.8% in April (March: 6.0%). Meanwhile, core inflation ticked up to 5.5% in April from March’s 5.4%. Lastly, consumer prices increased 0.66% from the previous month in April, accelerating from the 0.53% rise logged in March.

Outlook: Our panelists expect disinflation to resume in Q2 and to continue through the end of 2025 as food prices ease. This will push average price growth in 2025 down to a four-year low. Still, interest rate and minimum wage hikes plus currency weakness will keep inflation above the Central Bank’s target band through Q2 2026. A growing hydrocarbons supply shortfall is an upside risk, while export earnings, tax reforms and global tariff policy are key factors to monitor.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Colombian inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 43 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for Colombian inflation.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Colombian inflation projections.

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