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United Kingdom Unemployment July 2023

United Kingdom: Labor market shows further signs of softening

According to the ONS, in April–June the unemployment rate registered 4.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous rolling quarter and the highest rate since late 2021. In addition, vacancy numbers continued to decline in the three months to July. More positively, in July, employment rose by 97,000 from June according to a flash estimate. Moreover, average growth in regular pay was the highest since records began.

Overall, these figures show that the labor market is softening, and our panelists see the unemployment rate remaining above 4% for the rest of this year. Meanwhile, rapid pay growth is likely to cement a further hike in the policy rate by the Bank of England at its next meeting in September.

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