Ukraine GDP Q4 2018


Ukraine: Growth picks up in Q4

February 14, 2019

According to preliminary data released by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine on 14 February, the economy kicked into a higher gear at the end of 2018. GDP rose 3.4% in annual terms in the fourth quarter, up from 2.8% in the previous quarter.

Although the breakdown by components is not yet available, the fourth-quarter acceleration appears to have been driven chiefly by upbeat domestic demand. Tightening labor market conditions, largely due to sustained wage growth, likely propped up retail sales, which points to robust household consumption growth in the quarter despite an uptick in inflation. On the external front, dynamics remained broadly stable, with merchandise exports accelerating marginally compared to the previous quarter.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy expanded a seasonally-adjusted 1.1% in the fourth quarter, up from the previous quarter’s 0.4% increase and marking the strongest reading since Q1 2017.

The Central Bank expects GDP growth to ease to 2.5% next year, before picking up again to 2.9% in 2020. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 2.7% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2020.

Author:, Research Team Manager

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