Taiwan Economic Forecast

Taiwan Economic Outlook

August 20, 2019

A preliminary estimate revealed growth hit a one-year high in the second quarter, supported by accelerating household spending and export growth. In addition, fixed investment remained strong despite concerns over the U.S.-China trade war, partly due to some Taiwanese companies returning activities from the mainland. That said, the positive reading is expected to be a one-off. Early data for the third quarter is mixed, while subdued electronics demand amid the escalating U.S.-China trade war continues to eat into growth. Exports swung back to contraction in July, and the U.S. announcement that it would implement fresh tariffs on China in August will likely further hurt exports ahead. Moreover, on 31 July, China announced a surprise travel ban on solo travelers to Taiwan, which will dent the island’s tourism sector and increases tensions across the strait.

Taiwan Economic Growth

Headwinds from the U.S.-China trade war, a tense relationship with the mainland and subdued electronics demand will cause growth to slow this year. That said, returning investment and trade diversion should provide some respite, while low unemployment continues to shore up consumption. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP growth of 2.0% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.0% again in 2020.

Taiwan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)23.423.423.523.523.6
GDP per capita (USD)21,89422,71622,55922,66124,480
GDP (USD bn)512532530533577
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.24.00.81.53.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.33.42.62.42.5
Investment (annual variation in %)5.32.11.62.4-0.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.26.4-1.32.05.0
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)0.82.8-1.01.10.9
Unemployment Rate4.24.03.83.93.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.4-0.80.1-0.3-0.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)39.037.836.636.235.5
Money (annual variation in %)5.86.15.83.63.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.30.60.11.71.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.81.2-0.31.40.6
Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %)-2.4-0.6-8.9-3.00.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.881.881.631.381.38
Stock Market (annual variation in %)11.98.1-10.411.015.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)29.8331.6332.8332.4529.67
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)29.6830.3131.7632.2430.42
Current Account (% of GDP)9.711.414.113.414.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)49.960.474.871.683.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)33.438.248.149.858.0
Exports (USD billion)311320285280317
Imports (USD billion)278282237231259
Exports (annual variation in %)1.62.8-10.9-1.813.2
Imports (annual variation in %)0.21.4-15.8-2.812.4
International Reserves (USD)417419426434452
External Debt (% of GDP)33.233.430.032.331.5

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Taiwan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.681.28 %Sep 04
Exchange Rate31.270.07 %Sep 04
Stock Market10,6570.37 %Sep 04

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