Taiwan Economic Outlook
May 22, 2018The economy continued to post solid gains in the first quarter—backed by stronger consumption dynamics and a resilient external sector—but nevertheless decelerated modestly from the previous quarter. While household spending gained traction thanks to rising wages, it also contributed to higher imports, which lowered the growth contribution from an otherwise strong export performance. Leading data for Q2 suggests a further, albeit modest, slowdown as global demand moderates. In April, export growth slowed, mainly due to lower demand from mainland China and Hong Kong, and the manufacturing PMI eased to a six-month low. Nevertheless, and despite a likely peak in the tech cycle, the external sector should remain robust in coming months. However, the country remains vulnerable to an escalation of the U.S.-China trade dispute.
Taiwan Economic GrowthHousehold spending should support the economy this year thanks to higher wage growth. Momentum in exports will, however, likely moderate somewhat. Furthermore, electronic products, Taiwan’s flagship exports, are a key part of the current trade feud between China and the U.S., making Taiwan vulnerable to a degrading trade environment. In addition, the current Taiwanese government’s pro-independence stance has fueled tensions with China, posing further downside risks. China recently ramped up its efforts to attract qualified Taiwanese workers, which could accelerate the outflow of talent the country has been facing for years. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP growth of 2.6% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. GDP growth is seen at 2.3% in 2019.
Taiwan Economy Data
5 years of Taiwan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||1.03||1.28 %||May 21|
|Exchange Rate||29.89||0.07 %||May 21|
|Stock Market||10,966||0.37 %||May 21|
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Taiwan Economic News
May 8, 2018
Consumer prices increased 0.64% from the previous month in April, contrasting the 0.97% month-on-month fall recorded in March.
May 7, 2018
Merchandise exports grew 10.0% year-on-year in April, a significant slowdown from the 16.7% growth recorded in March.
May 2, 2018
The pace of expansion in the manufacturing sector again slowed in April.
April 27, 2018
A preliminary estimate shows that economic growth continued at a broadly stable pace in the first quarter, supported by healthy domestic demand and a resilient external sector.
April 23, 2018
Industrial output rebounded in March, expanding 3.1% in annual terms, which contrasted the revised 2.2% contraction recorded in February (previously recorded: -1.9% year-on-year). The breakdown of components reveals the upturn in March was driven by a rebound in manufacturing output, which accounts for more than nine-tenths of total industrial output.