Taiwan Economic Outlook
September 18, 2018After helping the economy reach a three-year high growth rate in the second quarter, the external sector appears to have significantly weakened in the third quarter. Export growth slowed for the third consecutive month in August, although an improvement in export orders in July could indicate a pickup of demand in September—coinciding with the scheduled release of new iPhone models—and beyond. Meanwhile, domestic demand should remain robust in H2 2018, supported by a tight labor market and increasingly loose fiscal policy: Only a third of the TWD 107 billion infrastructure package approved last year had been executed as of June, suggesting government spending will accelerate throughout H2. Furthermore, on 16 August, the cabinet approved a second TWD 228 billion infrastructure plan, with TWD 105.3 billion and TWD 122.2 billion allocated for 2019 and 2020 respectively.
Taiwan Economic GrowthThough higher fiscal spending should provide some support, growth appears poised to moderate somewhat in H2 2018 and beyond. This is mainly due to the external sector being affected by a likely slowdown in the tech cycle and the rapidly escalating U.S.-China trade dispute—which could also weigh on investment. Other downside risks include heightened migration of high-skilled workers and increased diplomatic tensions with China, upon whom Taiwan is heavily reliant. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP growth of 2.6% this year and 2.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.
Taiwan Economy Data
5 years of Taiwan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||0.94||1.28 %||Oct 12|
|Exchange Rate||30.91||0.07 %||Oct 12|
|Stock Market||10,046||0.37 %||Oct 12|
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Taiwan Economic News
October 8, 2018
Merchandise exports grew 2.6% in annual terms in September, accelerating from the 1.9% expansion registered in August and significantly exceeding the predictions of analysts who had expected exports to contract 1.3%.
October 5, 2018
Consumer prices increased 0.17% in September from the previous month, contrasting the 0.07% fall recorded in August.
October 1, 2018
The Taiwanese manufacturing sector slowed to a near standstill in September, continuing the downward trend observed since the beginning of the year.
September 27, 2018
Taiwan’s Central Bank of the Republic of China (CBRC) maintained course for the ninth consecutive quarter at its 27 September monetary policy meeting.
September 25, 2018
Industrial output growth expanded 1.3% year-on-year in August, slowing significantly from July’s upwardly revised 4.7% print (previously reported: +4.4% year-on-year). The weak August print came on the back of slowing manufacturing output—which represents more than 90% of total industrial production—as well as a steeper contraction in electricity and gas supply, mining, and water production.