Taiwan Economic Outlook
June 21, 2022After growth moderated in Q1, underlying momentum is easing in Q2. Pandemic-related restrictions in China and generally less favorable global demand conditions are weighing on the external sector and manufacturing. In May, the manufacturing PMI tumbled to a near two-year low and export growth waned, while export orders fell in April. Moreover, the non-manufacturing index plunged into contractionary territory in May, as record Covid-19 cases led to greater caution among consumers and firms. However, the government’s pivot towards living with the virus will limit the fallout. Despite surging caseloads, travel restrictions are being progressively eased, with the quarantine time for visitors cut to three days in June. In other news, Taiwan and the U.S. recently launched a trade “initiative”, signaling warming ties with Washington. However, the shift falls far short of a comprehensive trade deal.
Taiwan Economic GrowthGrowth should be robust this year, thanks to the strong semiconductor industry and a tighter labor market. That said, the ongoing Covid-19 outbreak at home, higher interest rates and a weaker Chinese economy will take the edge off momentum. Rising cross-strait tensions and a potentially prolonged Chinese economic slowdown are risks. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 3.5% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2023.
Taiwan Economy Data
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Taiwan Economic News
January 18, 2023
GDP decreased 0.9% on an annual basis in Q4 (Q3: +4.0% year on year).
January 9, 2023
Merchandise exports plummeted 12.1% annually in December, on the heels of November’s 13.1% drop.
January 6, 2023
Inflation rose to 2.7% in December, above November’s 2.3%.
January 1, 2023
The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) ticked up from 41.6 in November to 44.6 in December.
December 23, 2022
Industrial output decreased 4.9% in year-on-year terms in November, which was a larger contraction than October's 4.3% decrease.