Taiwan Economic Outlook
July 16, 2019
After a feeble first quarter, the economy seems to have remained dejected in Q2 as low export demand and the U.S.-China trade war continued to batter Taiwan’s critical tech sector. The manufacturing PMI fell to a seven-year low in June. While exports rebounded marginally in June after seven months of decline, export orders in May suggest demand will remain sluggish heading into Q3. Nevertheless, there are tentative signs the economy might gain steam in H2: The export order contraction softened in April–May; export performance in key markets is rebounding; and soaring machinery imports in June suggest a ramp-up in fixed investment. Moreover, the recent delay of U.S. tariffs on Chinese tech products could support business confidence. In other news, on 9 July the U.S. approved a USD 2.2 billion arms sale to Taiwan, drawing protests from China and fanning cross-strait tensions ahead of next year’s general elections.Taiwan Economic Growth
Growth looks set to slow this year due to the trade war and lower tech demand. While the possible imposition of U.S. tariffs on Chinese tech imports remains a key downside risk, Taiwan could benefit from global firms relocating production to the island. Moreover, public infrastructure investment, low unemployment and inflation should support domestic demand. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP growth of 1.9% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.0% in 2020.Taiwan Economy Data
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Taiwan Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 0.66 | 1.28 % | Jul 11 |
| Exchange Rate | 31.03 | 0.07 % | Jul 11 |
| Stock Market | 10,843 | 0.37 % | Jul 11 |
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Taiwan Economic News
Taiwan: Exports rebound marginally in June, but May export orders indicate lingering demand weakness
July 8, 2019
Merchandise exports increased 0.5% year-on-year in June, contrasting the 4.8% fall registered in May and interrupting seven consecutive months of decline in Taiwan’s critical trade sector.
Taiwan: Manufacturing PMI falls to over seven-year low in June
July 1, 2019
Operating conditions in the Taiwanese manufacturing sector continued to deteriorate in June for the ninth month running, and did so at an accelerated rate that was the steepest recorded since November 2011.
Taiwan: Industrial production dips again in May
June 24, 2019
Industrial output fell 3.1% year-on-year in May, contrasting the revised 1.4% year-on-year increase logged in April (previously reported: +1.0% year-on-year). Output in the manufacturing sector—which represents more than 90% of total industrial production—fell 3.0% in May, contrasting a 1.3% rise in April.
Taiwan: Central Bank stands pat again in June, leaves outlook broadly unchanged
June 20, 2019
Taiwan’s Central Bank of the Republic of China (CBRC) stood pat for the 12th consecutive quarter at its 20 June monetary policy meeting.
Taiwan: Exports contract further in May for seventh month running, April orders also decline
June 10, 2019
Merchandise exports fell 4.8% in annual terms in May, worsening from the 3.3% contraction registered in April and marking the seventh consecutive month of decline in Taiwan’s trade sector.
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