Taiwan Economic Forecast

Taiwan Economic Outlook

October 17, 2017

Leading data suggests economic momentum persisted in the third quarter. The all-important external sector rounded off a quarter of strong export growth as shipments overseas soared to the best pace in nearly seven years in September. The upturn in exports reflects robust foreign demand for Taiwanese manufactured products, particularly electronics, which in turn continues to buttress activity in the domestic economy. Upbeat external dynamics, coupled with a small acceleration in real wage growth and buoyant equity prices, is also boosting confidence. Consumer and business sentiment logged their best readings in nearly two years in September. With the pipeline of new electronics product launches now in full swing, the external sector is expected to carry over its momentum into the fourth quarter and continue supporting overall growth. GDP growth is, however, expected to moderate due to an unfavorable base effect.

Taiwan Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)23.323.423.423.523.5
GDP per capita (USD)21,34421,89422,71622,54122,585
GDP (USD bn)498512532530532
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.12.24.00.71.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.82.33.42.72.2
Investment (annual variation in %)-2.65.32.11.62.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.30.76.4-1.81.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)0.51.32.50.70.6
Unemployment Rate4.24.24.03.83.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.5-0.8-0.80.1-1.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.133.832.831.631.9
Money (annual variation in %)3.55.86.15.83.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.60.30.60.11.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.90.81.2-0.31.4
Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %)-1.2-2.4-0.6-8.9-3.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.881.881.881.631.38
Stock Market (annual variation in %)8.911.98.1-10.411.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)29.0529.8331.6332.8332.45
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)29.5729.6830.3131.7632.24
Current Account (% of GDP)8.910.011.614.213.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)44.451.361.975.272.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)29.133.438.248.149.8
Exports (USD billion)306311320285280
Imports (USD billion)277278282237231
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.11.62.8-10.9-1.8
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.70.21.4-15.8-2.8
International Reserves (USD)403417419426434
External Debt (% of GDP)26.333.233.430.032.4

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Taiwan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield1.020.20 %Oct 18
Exchange Rate30.200.03 %Oct 18
Stock Market10,720-0.03 %Oct 18

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Taiwan Economic Growth

October 17, 2017

The economy is expected to grow at a stable clip next year as government consumption turns more supportive on the back of higher public-sector wages and the ramp-up of public fixed investment linked to the country’s Forward-Looking Infrastructure Plan. This will offset moderating growth in exports, which will be affected by a strong base effect and maturing economic cycles in advanced economies. FocusEconomics panelists foresee GDP growth of 2.2% next year, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2019, the panel also expects growth to clock in at 2.2%.

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