Taiwan Economic Outlook
November 17, 2020The economy rebounded strongly in the third quarter, contrasting the marginal contraction in the second quarter and marking the best result in two years. The turnaround was spearheaded by firmer exports growth, chiefly thanks to soaring demand for Taiwanese electronic goods from China and the U.S. On the domestic front, consumer demand showed signs of recovery in Q3, contracting at a much softer pace than in Q2. On top of that, government spending bounced back in the quarter, solidifying the overall economic recovery in turn. Turning to Q4, available data suggests sustained momentum at the tail end of the year. In October, the manufacturing PMI remained virtually unchanged at September’s 30-month high, which, coupled with an uptick in business confidence, points to solid private sector activity growth at the outset of the quarter. Moreover, sustained forward-looking export order growth in September signals upbeat external sector conditions in Q4.
Taiwan Economic GrowthGrowth should pick up steam next year, as the constraining effects of the pandemic gradually wear off. Upbeat foreign demand for merchandise goods will support the external sector, while recovering consumer demand is set to boost domestic activity. Uncertainty over the timing of a Covid-19 vaccine and geopolitical tensions with China cloud the outlook, however. Our panelists see GDP growing 3.4% in 2021, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 2.6% in 2021.
Taiwan Economy Data
5 years of Taiwan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||0.69||1.28 %||Dec 31|
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Taiwan Economic News
May 7, 2021
Merchandise exports soared 38.7% on an annual basis in April, following March’s 27.1% jump and driven once again by booming semiconductor exports.
May 3, 2021
The IHS Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 62.4 in April, up from March's 60.8.
April 30, 2021
GDP growth sped up to 8.2% year-on-year in the first quarter, from 5.1% in the fourth quarter of last year, making Taiwan’s economy one of Asia’s star performers so far in 2021.
April 23, 2021
Industrial output grew 16.8% year-on-year in March (February: +2.5% yoy).
April 9, 2021
Merchandise exports shot up 27.1% in annual terms in March (February: +9.7% year-on-year) amid ongoing surging electronics exports.