Taiwan Economic Outlook
December 13, 2018Economic momentum appears to have continued waning in the fourth quarter—after logging a marked deceleration in the third quarter—according to available economic data. Notably, the PMI fell into contractionary territory in October before dipping again in November, while exports unexpectedly declined in November, largely due to weaker smartphone demand. Though export orders were robust in October, the softer demand for tech products will likely continue to weigh on the trade sector until year-end. Meanwhile, the more subdued private spending observed in Q3 looks poised to continue in Q4, as consumer confidence fell again in November. Nevertheless, a large public infrastructure package will likely keep buttressing investment growth in the quarter and beyond. On the political front, the local elections held on 24 November—seen by analysts largely as an interim evaluation of the government’s policy—dealt a heavy blow to President Tsai, forcing her to resign as head of the Democratic Progressive Party and possibly compromising her 2020 reelection bid.
Taiwan Economic GrowthGrowth should moderate starting next year, as the external sector—and particularly electronics exports—remain particularly vulnerable to an escalation of the Sino-American trade war. Though private consumption is seen waning, it should nevertheless remain resilient due to low unemployment, while the TWD 228 billion infrastructure package approved for 2019 and 2020 will support investment momentum. Aside from trade issues, increasing diplomatic tensions with the mainland remains a key downside risk. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP growth of 2.2% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.0% in 2020.
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|Bond Yield||0.88||1.28 %||Jan 16|
|Exchange Rate||30.81||0.07 %||Jan 16|
|Stock Market||9,764||0.37 %||Jan 16|
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Taiwan Economic News
January 8, 2019
Consumer prices fell 0.50% in December from the previous month, up from the 0.61% decline logged in November.
January 7, 2019
Merchandise exports fell 3.0% in annual terms in December, a slight improvement over November’s 3.4% year-on-year contraction.
January 2, 2019
Operating conditions in the Taiwanese manufacturing sector deteriorated for the third consecutive month in December, indicating significantly weaker momentum in the fourth quarter.
December 24, 2018
Industrial output expanded 2.1% year-on-year in November, down markedly from the 8.3% growth registered in October.
December 7, 2018
Merchandise exports fell 3.4% in annual terms in November, markedly contrasting the 7.3% expansion logged in October, and falling short of market analysts’ expectations of a 1.3% growth print.