Cityscape at night in Taiwan

Taiwan Economic Forecast

Taiwan Economic Outlook

Economic activity undershot market expectations in Q4 by shrinking in both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter terms. A sharp fall in exports was the main reason for the annual contraction, with Chinese demand in particular dampened by the country’s adverse Covid-19 situation. In addition, total investment flatlined amid soft business sentiment, while private consumption growth slowed. Early signs for Q1 are downbeat: In January, both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs fell, while merchandise exports were down over 20% year on year. However, a recovery in tourism and the seemingly rapid rebound in China’s economy should support activity later in Q1, and our analysts see Taiwanese GDP returning to both annual and sequential growth over the quarter as a whole.

Taiwan Inflation

Inflation came in at 3.0% in January, up from December’s 2.7% and marking the highest reading since July 2022. January’s reading was primarily driven by faster increases in prices for food and housing. Our panelists see inflation moving back below 2% this year due to tighter monetary policy and a pull-back in external price pressures.

Taiwan Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 23.6 23.6 23.6 23.6 23.4
GDP (USD bn) 593 608 611 677 779
GDP per capita (USD) 25 25 25 28 33
GDP (TWD bn) 17 18 18 19 21
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 2.4 2.2 2.9 5.3 9.2
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.3 2.8 3.1 3.4 6.5
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 1.3 3.6 3.3 0.9 5.0
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.7 2.1 2.3 -2.6 -0.4
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -0.4 4.0 0.6 2.8 3.7
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -0.3 3.2 11.1 6.1 14.5
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 4.5 0.2 0.7 1.2 17.3
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 1.6 0.8 0.5 -3.5 18.1
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 5.0 3.6 -0.3 7.1 13.4
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 0.9 2.2 3.1 0.2 3.3
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.8 4.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -0.1 0.0 0.1 -1.0 -0.2
Public Debt (% of GDP) 34.5 33.9 32.7 32.6 28.4
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 3.6 2.7 4.5 9.4 7.3
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 1.2 -0.1 1.2 0.0 2.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 0.6 1.4 0.6 -0.2 2.0
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, aop) 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.4 1.3
CB Discount Rate (%, eop) 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.13 1.13
31-90 Day CP Rate (%, eop) 0.66 0.67 0.67 0.48 0.48
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 0.95 0.86 0.67 0.32 0.74
Stock Market (ann. var. of TAIEX %) 15.0 -8.6 23.3 22.8 23.7
Exchange Rate (TWD per USD, eop) 29.8 30.7 30.0 28.1 27.7
Exchange Rate (TWD per USD, aop) 30.4 30.2 30.9 29.4 27.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 83.1 70.7 65.7 96.6 117.2
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 14.0 11.6 10.8 14.3 15.0
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 58.3 49.2 43.5 59.0 64.4
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 315 334 329 345 446
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 257 285 286 286 382
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 13.0 5.9 -1.5 4.9 29.3
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 12.2 10.7 0.3 0.2 33.5
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 3.4 7.1 8.2 6.1 5.4
International Reserves (USD bn) 452 462 478 530 548
International Reserves (months of imports) 21.1 19.5 20.1 22.2 17.2
External Debt (USD bn) 182 191 185 190 214
External Debt (% of GDP) 30.7 31.4 30.2 28.0 27.4

Free Sample Report

Interested in Taiwan economic reports, analysis and data? FocusEconomics provides data, forecasts and analysis for hundreds of countries and commodities. Request your free sample report now.

Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest