Taiwan Economic Outlook
November 17, 2020The economy rebounded strongly in the third quarter, contrasting the marginal contraction in the second quarter and marking the best result in two years. The turnaround was spearheaded by firmer exports growth, chiefly thanks to soaring demand for Taiwanese electronic goods from China and the U.S. On the domestic front, consumer demand showed signs of recovery in Q3, contracting at a much softer pace than in Q2. On top of that, government spending bounced back in the quarter, solidifying the overall economic recovery in turn. Turning to Q4, available data suggests sustained momentum at the tail end of the year. In October, the manufacturing PMI remained virtually unchanged at September’s 30-month high, which, coupled with an uptick in business confidence, points to solid private sector activity growth at the outset of the quarter. Moreover, sustained forward-looking export order growth in September signals upbeat external sector conditions in Q4.
Taiwan Economic GrowthGrowth should pick up steam next year, as the constraining effects of the pandemic gradually wear off. Upbeat foreign demand for merchandise goods will support the external sector, while recovering consumer demand is set to boost domestic activity. Uncertainty over the timing of a Covid-19 vaccine and geopolitical tensions with China cloud the outlook, however. Our panelists see GDP growing 3.4% in 2021, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 2.6% in 2021.
Taiwan Economy Data
5 years of Taiwan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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Taiwan Economic News
November 23, 2020
Industrial output rose 7.1% in year-on-year terms in October, which followed September's 11.6% increase.
November 9, 2020
Merchandise exports jumped 11.2% annually in October, following September’s 9.4% increase.
November 6, 2020
Consumer prices increased 0.36% from the previous month in October, swinging from September's 0.11% fall.
November 2, 2020
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by IHS Markit, ticked down to 55.1 in October, from 55.2 in September—which had marked the best result in two-and-a-half years.
October 30, 2020
Economic activity bounced back in the third quarter, with GDP expanding 3.3% year-on-year, contrasting the 0.6% contraction seen in the second quarter and marking an over two-year high.