Taiwan Economic Outlook
September 21, 2021After the economy lost momentum in the second quarter amid the reimposition of nationwide restrictions, annual growth has likely slowed down further in the third quarter. However, this is largely owing to a less favorable base effect, as underlying conditions have actually improved amid ebbing daily Covid-19 cases and looser restrictions. Accordingly, data for July–August is upbeat: Exports recorded healthy growth and the non-manufacturing PMI was above Q2’s average. Moreover, consumer confidence improved in the same period, which, together with lower unemployment in July, bodes well for private consumption. In other news, on 9 September the government announced a plan to hand out USD 5.8 billion worth of coupons to boost household spending. The stimulus should work as an indirect relief package for small businesses hit by the pandemic’s fallout.
Taiwan Economic GrowthAfter expanding rapidly this year, activity is set to lose some momentum in 2022. That said, growth should remain upbeat next year, as the economy will likely emerge relatively unharmed from the health crisis and will benefit from its position as the leader in the global chip market. However, tensions with China pose a downside risk. Our panelists see GDP growing 5.95.8% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.13.1% in 2022, which is unchangedalso unchanged from last month’s forecast.
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Taiwan Economic News
October 8, 2021
Merchandise exports shot up 29.2% year-on-year in September, on the heels of August’s 26.9% upturn and spurred by ongoing strong electronics exports.
October 6, 2021
Consumer prices increased 0.17% from the previous month in September, below August's 0.59% rise.
October 1, 2021
The IHS Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 54.7 in September from August's 58.5.
September 27, 2021
Industrial output expanded 13.7% compared to the same month of the previous year in August, which followed July's 14.4% increase.
September 23, 2021
At its monetary policy meeting on 23 September, the Board of Directors of Taiwan’s Central Bank (CBC) kept rates unchanged, leaving the discount rate at the record low of 1.125%.