Taiwan Economic Forecast

Taiwan Economic Outlook

November 14, 2017

The economy roared through the third quarter on the back of a stellar performance in the external sector. Strong global economic growth and a cyclical upswing in electronics exports supported shipments overseas throughout the quarter, with the external sector recording its largest contribution to growth in over five years. Conversely, the domestic sector dragged on growth as gross capital formation growth plunged and households failed to respond to stronger real wages and a buoyant equity market. Looking to Q4, leading data points to another solid outturn. Consumer sentiment hit a fresh two-year high in October because of a healthy labor market, while business confidence logged its best result since late 2015, reflecting positive underlying trends in the external and manufacturing sectors.

Taiwan Economic Growth

The government’s loosened fiscal stance, which includes the implementation of the country’s Forward-Looking Infrastructure Plan and higher public-sector wages, is expected to shore up fixed investment and government consumption next year. Conversely, exports are expected to turn slightly less supportive of GDP growth due to a strong base effect and maturing economic cycles across several advanced economies. FocusEconomics panelists forecast growth of 2.3% next year, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. GDP growth is seen at 2.2% in 2019.

Taiwan Economy Data

Population (million)23.323.423.423.523.5
GDP per capita (USD)21,34421,89422,71622,54122,585
GDP (USD bn)498512532530532
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)-
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)
Unemployment Rate4.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.5-0.8-0.80.1-1.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.133.832.831.631.9
Money (annual variation in %)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %)-1.2-2.4-0.6-8.9-3.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.881.881.881.631.38
Stock Market (annual variation in %)8.911.98.1-10.411.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)29.0529.8331.6332.8332.45
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)29.5729.6830.3131.7632.24
Current Account (% of GDP)8.910.011.614.213.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)44.451.361.975.272.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)29.133.438.248.149.8
Exports (USD billion)306311320285280
Imports (USD billion)277278282237231
Exports (annual variation in %)-
Imports (annual variation in %)-
International Reserves (USD)403417419426434
External Debt (% of GDP)26.333.233.430.032.4

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Taiwan Facts

Bond Yield0.961.28 %Dec 06
Exchange Rate30.010.07 %Dec 06
Stock Market10,3940.37 %Dec 06

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