Taiwan Economic Outlook
November 17, 2020The economy rebounded strongly in the third quarter, contrasting the marginal contraction in the second quarter and marking the best result in two years. The turnaround was spearheaded by firmer exports growth, chiefly thanks to soaring demand for Taiwanese electronic goods from China and the U.S. On the domestic front, consumer demand showed signs of recovery in Q3, contracting at a much softer pace than in Q2. On top of that, government spending bounced back in the quarter, solidifying the overall economic recovery in turn. Turning to Q4, available data suggests sustained momentum at the tail end of the year. In October, the manufacturing PMI remained virtually unchanged at September’s 30-month high, which, coupled with an uptick in business confidence, points to solid private sector activity growth at the outset of the quarter. Moreover, sustained forward-looking export order growth in September signals upbeat external sector conditions in Q4.
Taiwan Economic GrowthGrowth should pick up steam next year, as the constraining effects of the pandemic gradually wear off. Upbeat foreign demand for merchandise goods will support the external sector, while recovering consumer demand is set to boost domestic activity. Uncertainty over the timing of a Covid-19 vaccine and geopolitical tensions with China cloud the outlook, however. Our panelists see GDP growing 3.4% in 2021, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 2.6% in 2021.
Taiwan Economy Data
5 years of Taiwan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||0.69||1.28 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||29.91||0.07 %||Jan 01|
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Taiwan Economic News
February 8, 2021
Merchandise exports jumped 36.8% in annual terms in January (December: +12.0% year-on-year), driven by surging shipments of electronics.
February 5, 2021
Consumer prices increased 0.38% in January over the previous month, picking up from the 0.03% rise logged in December.
February 1, 2021
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by IHS Markit, jumped from 59.4 in December to 60.2 in January, marking the best reading since April 2010.
January 29, 2021
GDP growth picked up to 4.9% year-on-year in the final quarter of last year, from 3.9% in the third quarter.
January 25, 2021
Industrial output grew 9.9% compared to the same month a year earlier in December, which was above November's 7.6% increase.