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Taiwan Interest Rate

Taiwan Interest Rate

Discount Rate in Taiwan

The Discount Rate ended 2022 at 1.75%, up from the 1.13% end-2021 value and down from the reading of 1.88% a decade earlier. For reference, the average Discount Rate in Asia-Pacific was 3.70% at end-2022. For more interest rate information, visit our dedicated page.

Taiwan Interest Rate Chart

Note: This chart displays Policy Interest Rate (%) for Taiwan from 2018 to 2017.
Source: Central Bank of Taiwan.

Taiwan Interest Rate Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Discount Rate (%, eop) 1.38 1.38 1.13 1.13 1.75
31-90 Day CP Rate (%, eop) 0.67 0.67 0.48 0.48 1.36
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 0.86 0.67 0.32 0.74 1.28

Central Bank hikes rates in March

At its monetary policy meeting on 21 March, the Board of Directors of Taiwan’s Central Bank (CBC) hiked the discount rate from 1.875% to 2.0%, following three consecutive holds. The decision surprised markets, which had expected a hold.

The decision to hike was driven by the desire to contain inflation—which in the past six months has been more than double the 2014–2023 average—and stop inflation expectations from drifting upwards. Upside risks to inflation are posed by a proposed hike to electricity rates from April. In addition, the Bank upgraded its GDP projections for 2024 and expects activity to strengthen this year thanks to recovering exports and private investment; the interest rate hike thus aimed to ward off any demand-push inflationary pressures generated by the stronger economy.

The Bank gave no explicit forward guidance, but said it would stay mindful of the impact of electricity rates and the green energy transition on inflation. While our panelists are still assessing the Bank’s latest move, the rate hike is unlikely to be the start of another prolonged tightening cycle, given our panelists’ projections for inflation to fall below 2% by end-2024.

On the outlook, Goldman Sachs’ Lu Sun said: “Despite the hike, governor Yang mentioned CPI is expected to go below 2% by 4Q24, and see limited upside for interest rate from here. This is also in light of other DMs are likely to start cutting rates in 2H. He also keeps the door open for rate cut if Taiwan inflation comes lower.” On the reasons behind the March hike, ING’s Lynn Song said: “It's possible that a contributing factor was a higher-than-expected February inflation read, which rose to a 19-month high of 3.08% year-on-year – but in our view, this was skewed by the Lunar New Year effect. A stronger-than-expected start to exports in the year may have strengthened the central bank’s conviction in the growth outlook […] we will likely see stable rates at the next few meetings, barring any major changes to the outlook.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Taiwanese interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 17 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Taiwanese interest rate.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Taiwanese interest rate projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Taiwanese interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

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