Switzerland: KOF economic barometer rebounds in July
July 30, 2019
The KOF economic barometer—a leading composite indicator for the Swiss economy, which forecasts a six-month period—climbed to 97.1 points in July, from a revised 93.8 points in June (previously reported: 93.6 points). Nevertheless, the indicator remained below the series’ long-run average of 100 points, suggesting the economy will expand at a softer pace in the short-term than its 10-year average rate.
The modest improvement in July was driven mainly by better momentum in manufacturing and construction as well as the hospitality and financial sectors. In the manufacturing sector, the reading was notably buttressed by a more optimistic view of companies’ competitive situation and employment outlook. On the other hand, export demand indicators worsened in the month.
Amid intensifying global trade tensions, the KOF indicator has remained entrenched below the 100-point threshold so far this year, suggesting the economy’s growth was likely subdued in Q2 and will continue to be through a good part of H2, following Q1’s surprisingly robust GDP outturn.
Author: Lindsey Ice, Economist