Serbia: Inflation surges to over eight-year high in November
Consumer prices rose 0.92% in November over the previous month, easing slightly from the 0.94% rise recorded in October. Looking at the details of the release, the fractional cooling was driven by falling prices for alcoholic beverages and tobacco, and housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels as well as declining prices for transportation offsetting a rise in food prices.
Inflation, meanwhile, rose to a 100-month high of 7.5% in November from September’s 6.6%. Consequently, annual average inflation rose to 3.5% in November from 3.1% in the prior month. Lastly, harmonized inflation rose to 7.5% in November from October’s 6.5%.
Mate Jelic, analyst at Erste Bank, added:
“Another record print was expected in November so we don’t expect any changes in the monetary course from the NBS. […] The current outlook still suggests this pressure to be of a more transitory character, although the overall intensity is higher than earlier projected. After averaging around 4% y/y this year, we expect inflation to accelerate to 4.8% next year on average, before coming down to 2.6% y/y in 2023. The risks to our forecast are tilted mildly to the upside, due to uncertainty regarding the energy crisis, global supply chain normalization and the possible emergence of demand-side pressures as well.”