Russia Industrial production September 2020

Russia

Russia: Industrial output deteriorates in September

October 15, 2020

Industrial output slid 5.0% in year-on-year terms in September, which was a deterioration from August's 4.2% decrease. Notably, the Rosstat’s press release was accompanied by a backward-looking revision which paints a better picture of the industrial production performance in January-August than previously believed.

September’s result largely reflected a drop in manufacturing production. In addition, electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply output contracted at a steeper rate.

On a monthly basis, industrial output declined 0.2% in seasonally-adjusted terms in September, contrasting August’s 0.5% expansion. Meanwhile, the trend pointed down, with the annual average variation of industrial production coming in at minus 1.5% in September, down from August's minus 0.6% reading.

Commenting on the result and economic outlook, Dmitry Dolgin, chief Russia economist at ING, said:

“The noticeable upward revision in the industrial output dynamic to -2.9% YoY for 9M20 makes our full-year IP target of -4.5% easy to outperform, and gives more credit to our optimistic GDP expectations for 2020 (a drop of 2-3%). Meanwhile, the negative surprise for September suggests fragility of the post-Covid recovery to global growth concerns and to fiscal consolidation”.

FocusEconomics panel of analysts expects industrial output to fall 4.5% this year, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel expects industrial production to increase 3.8%, which is also up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate.


Author:, Economist

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Russia Industry September 20 20

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average growth of industrial production index in %.
Source: Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) and FocusEconomics calculations


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