Portugal: Economy loses traction in Q3

According to a flash GDP estimate released by the National Statistical Institute (INE) on 14 November, the economy lost pace in the third quarter, with economic growth in quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted terms weakening to 0.3% from an 0.6% expansion in the second quarter. Meanwhile, economic growth on an annual basis moderated to 2.1% in Q3 from 2.4% in Q2.

While a comprehensive breakdown of the quarter-on-quarter result will be released on 30 November, the preliminary estimate indicated that exports fell in the quarter, which translated into a drag on growth by the external sector. Domestic demand, on the other hand, made a more positive contribution to growth, owing to an acceleration in private consumption and fixed investment.

Portugal GDP Forecast

The Bank of Portugal projects the economy will expand 1.9% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 1.8% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.7% in 2020.