Portugal Economic Sentiment September 2018

Portugal

Portugal: Consumer confidence and business sentiment slip in September

September 27, 2018

According to the National Statistics Institute’s (INE) survey of consumer sentiment released on 27 September, consumer confidence deteriorated marginally and remained entrenched in negative territory. The indicator edged down from minus 1.3 points in August to minus 1.5 points in September. September’s reading largely reflected the deterioration of consumers’ outlook over the unemployment situation in the year ahead, marking the fourth consecutive month of deterioration. Moreover, households’ sentiment regarding their personal financial situation over the next year slipped, albeit slightly, compared to August. Meanwhile, households’ perception on their savings over the next twelve months improved marginally and they also turned more optimistic over the general economic situation in twelve months’ time.

The overall economic climate indicator ticked down from 2.5 in August to 2.4 in September. A breakdown of the sectors shows a deterioration of expectations in the manufacturing, services, and construction and public works sectors, and a brighter outlook in the trade industry. A more pessimistic outlook on demand for order books underpinned the fall in sentiment in manufacturing and weaker expectations regarding employment in the next three months drove the deterioration in construction and public works. In addition, firms’ less upbeat appraisal over the business situation in the past three months was behind the dip in sentiment in services. Meanwhile, the improved outlook in the trade industry came on the back of higher optimism over the business situation in three months’ time.

FocusEconomics panelists expect fixed investment to increase 5.2% in 2018, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. Panelists expect private consumption to grow 2.3% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate.


Author:, Economist

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Portugal Economic Sentiment September 2018

Note: Consumer Confidence and Economic Climate indicators.
Source: Statistics Portugal (INE).


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