Lithuania Economic Forecast

Lithuania Economic Outlook

May 3, 2022

GDP expanded at a more sluggish pace in annual terms in Q1, according to preliminary figures. Available data for the quarter hints at subdued consumer spending: The unemployment rate remained elevated in January–February, while harmonized inflation reached a new record high in March. Furthermore, consumer sentiment tumbled to its lowest level since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. Turning to the second quarter, household spending has likely remained muted, as suggested by continued pessimism among consumers. Meanwhile, Lithuania—along with its Baltic partners—have shut off Russian gas imports as retaliation to the invasion of Ukraine. Recently, the EU announced funding for businesses hit by the Chinese embargo, while on 22 April the European Commission unveiled EUR 6.4 billion in key investments in order to support the EU Green Deal.

Lithuania Economic Growth

Economic growth is expected to slow in 2022, partially due to a less favorable base effect. Moreover, the ongoing war in Ukraine and elevated inflation will likely hurt activity. That said, a solid pickup in investment should sustain growth, as should a healthy inflow of EU funds. That said, elevated regional tensions pose considerable uncertainty. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy growing 2.1% in 2022, which is down 0.7 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2023, they expect it to expand 2.6%.

Lithuania Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)2.92.92.82.82.8
GDP per capita (EUR)12,84013,56314,95816,14417,385
GDP (EUR bn)37.338.942.345.348.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.02.64.23.63.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.14.03.53.73.2
Investment (annual variation in %)4.93.48.28.47.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)4.42.96.94.93.4
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)5.36.94.56.55.5
Unemployment Rate8.87.66.76.06.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.30.20.50.60.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)42.639.739.133.836.3
Money (annual variation in %)33.17.35.911.410.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.11.73.91.92.7
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-0.70.73.72.52.2
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-9.6-4.45.15.6-0.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.0-  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)1.001.001.001.001.00
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.4-1.20.40.44.4
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.9-0.40.20.12.1
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.1-1.9-2.1-2.8-2.2
Exports (EUR billion)19.719.522.824.626.0
Imports (EUR billion)21.821.424.827.328.2
Exports (annual variation in %)-4.3-1.016.97.96.0
Imports (annual variation in %)0.9-2.016.210.13.1
International Reserves (EUR)1.62.53.75.04.5
External Debt (% of GDP)76.986.283.878.468.1

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Lithuania Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.430.0 %Dec 30

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