Lithuania Economic Forecast

Lithuania Economic Outlook

June 30, 2020

Severe fallout from Covid-19 seems to have dealt a heavy blow to the economy in the second quarter, after growth plunged to a three-and-a-half year low in the first quarter. Industrial production plunged in April–May, largely reflecting constraining effects of lockdown measures on the all-important manufacturing sector. Similarly, retail sales sank in April, weighed on by the closure of some non-essential businesses and as households put off spending amid lingering uncertainty. Externally, the panorama was similarly grim: Merchandise exports nosedived in April due to eviscerated foreign demand and global supply chain disruptions. That said, private sector activity seems to have bottomed out in May, with retail sales and economic sentiment pulling away from April’s multiyear lows amid easing of lockdown restrictions. Moreover, consumer confidence improved notably in June, as the country partly reopened its borders and further eased social-distancing measures in a boost to the services sector.

Lithuania Economic Growth

The economy is expected to contract severely this year, pounded by the pandemic. Shrinking investment activity and a drop in consumer spending are set to drive the downturn in domestic demand, while collapsed foreign demand will likely hamper the external sector. Greater public spending should soften the blow somewhat, however. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy contracting 6.1% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2021, the economy is expected to rebound and grow 4.9%.

Lithuania Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)
GDP per capita (EUR)12,84013,56314,95816,14417,385
GDP (EUR bn)37.338.942.345.348.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)
Unemployment Rate8.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-
Public Debt (% of GDP)42.639.739.133.836.3
Money (annual variation in %)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-9.6-
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.0-  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.4-
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.9-
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.1-1.9-2.1-2.8-2.2
Exports (EUR billion)19.719.522.824.626.0
Imports (EUR billion)21.821.424.827.328.2
Exports (annual variation in %)-4.3-
Imports (annual variation in %)0.9-
International Reserves (EUR)
External Debt (% of GDP)76.986.283.878.468.1

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Lithuania Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.430.0 %Dec 30

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