Lithuania Economic Forecast

Lithuania Economic Outlook

September 28, 2021

A second estimate revealed that the economy grew at the fastest pace in over 13 years in annual terms in the second quarter, amid a quickening vaccination campaign that allowed for looser restrictions throughout the period. The result came on the back of a broad-based improvement, as all components gained considerable momentum from the previous quarter—although readings were flattered by a low base effect. However, turning to Q3, available data points to a slowdown across the board in year-on-year terms: Growth in industrial output, retail sales, and merchandise imports and exports slowed markedly in July, mainly due to a less favorable base effect. In other news, the IMF recently concluded its Article IV consultation with the country, praising the government’s strong response to the health crisis that should allow for a healthy economic recovery in the long term.

Lithuania Economic Growth

GDP is forecast to grow robustly this year, with a broad-based improvement in activity driving the recovery. The outlook for 2022 remains equally bright amid an expected release of pent-up demand and a pickup in investment activity, helped by EU funds. However, uncertainty regarding the pandemic and recent geopolitical tensions with neighboring Belarus pose downside risks. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy growing 4.0% in 2021. In 2022, the economy is expected to grow 3.9%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.

Lithuania Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)2.92.92.82.82.8
GDP per capita (EUR)12,84013,56314,95816,14417,385
GDP (EUR bn)37.338.942.345.348.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.02.64.23.63.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.14.03.53.73.2
Investment (annual variation in %)4.93.48.28.47.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)4.42.96.94.93.4
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)5.36.94.56.55.5
Unemployment Rate8.87.66.76.06.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.30.20.50.60.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)42.639.739.133.836.3
Money (annual variation in %)33.17.35.911.410.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.11.73.91.92.7
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-0.70.73.72.52.2
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-9.6-4.45.15.6-0.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.0-  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)1.001.001.001.001.00
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.4-1.20.40.44.4
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.9-0.40.20.12.1
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.1-1.9-2.1-2.8-2.2
Exports (EUR billion)19.719.522.824.626.0
Imports (EUR billion)21.821.424.827.328.2
Exports (annual variation in %)-4.3-1.016.97.96.0
Imports (annual variation in %)0.9-2.016.210.13.1
International Reserves (EUR)1.62.53.75.04.5
External Debt (% of GDP)76.986.283.878.468.1

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Lithuania Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.430.0 %Dec 30

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