Lithuania Economic Forecast

Lithuania Economic Outlook

January 30, 2018

Indicators for Q4 suggest economic activity expanded at a sustained pace in the final stretch of 2017, following a moderation in growth in Q3. External demand, especially from the EU, was buoyant in October and November: Year-on-year export growth came in at double-digit rates in both months. Healthy demand for Lithuanian products was reflected in the solid annual expansions in industrial production recorded throughout the quarter. Moreover, after reaching a six-month high in October, the unemployment rate inched down in November. Together with some easing in inflationary pressures, this sustained consumer spending, as suggested by the acceleration in year-on-year growth in retail sales registered in the same month. However, economic sentiment weakened further in December. The decline was almost broad-based and mainly influenced by more pessimistic expectations about production and exports.

Lithuania Economic Growth

In 2018 the economy should post another year of healthy expansion, although growth is expected to decelerate from last year. Rising wages and a tightening labor market should lift household spending. Moreover, growth in fixed investment will, despite moderating, likely remain robust as monetary policy remains accommodative and EU funds continue to flow in. However, export growth should slow as rising internal costs partially erode competitiveness. The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panel expects the economy to expand 3.2% in 2018, unchanged from last month, and 2.9% the following year.

Lithuania Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)3.03.02.92.92.9
GDP per capita (EUR)11,14511,83212,48312,84013,445
GDP (EUR bn)33.335.036.637.338.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.83.53.51.82.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.14.34.34.15.6
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.88.33.74.7-0.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.63.70.25.02.9
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)3.84.35.75.37.1
Unemployment Rate13.211.410.18.87.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.1-2.6-0.7-0.20.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)39.838.740.542.740.2
Money (annual variation in %)7.24.91.533.17.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.80.4-0.3-0.11.7
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)3.21.20.2-0.70.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)5.0-2.4-4.9-9.6-4.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.750.250.050.0-  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.21.53.7-2.4-1.2
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.40.51.3-0.9-0.3
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.8-1.7-1.5-2.5-2.1
Exports (EUR billion)23.024.524.422.922.6
Imports (EUR billion)24.926.225.925.424.7
Exports (annual variation in %)13.96.5-0.4-6.1-1.3
Imports (annual variation in %)9.25.2-1.1-1.9-2.8
International Reserves (EUR)2.55.97.21.62.5
External Debt (% of GDP)78.270.369.876.086.4

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Lithuania Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield1.250.0 %Feb 22
Stock Market6680.45 %Feb 22

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