Lithuania Economic Forecast

Lithuania Economic Outlook

October 27, 2020

The opposition Homeland Union party (the Conservatives) claimed the victory in the country’s general election after winning the first round on 11 October and solidifying their position in the second round on 25 October. The Conservatives are seen forming a center-right coalition with two liberal parties—the Freedom Party and the Liberal Movement—thus cementing a majority in the 141-seat parliament. The Conservatives’ solid economic credentials and the need for coalition-building with liberal parties bode well for business conditions and should ensure the continuity of economic and social policies. Meanwhile, the economic backdrop seemed to improve notably in Q3. Industrial output expanded in the quarter for the first time this year as companies ramped up capacity amid improving economic sentiment. Moreover, retail sales soared in July–August, hinting at recovering consumer demand in Q3.

Lithuania Economic Growth

The economy will rebound strongly next year, after 2020’s pandemic-induced contraction, although the downturn should be the softest in the EU. A revival in foreign and domestic demand, and inflows of EU funding are set to underpin the rebound. Meanwhile, the need for coalition-building post-election should ensure economic policy continuity, further supporting the recovery. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy rebounding 3.8% in 2021, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2021, the economy is expected to grow 3.3%.

Lithuania Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)
GDP per capita (EUR)12,84013,56314,95816,14417,385
GDP (EUR bn)37.338.942.345.348.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)
Unemployment Rate8.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-
Public Debt (% of GDP)42.639.739.133.836.3
Money (annual variation in %)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-9.6-
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.0-  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.4-
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.9-
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.1-1.9-2.1-2.8-2.2
Exports (EUR billion)19.719.522.824.626.0
Imports (EUR billion)21.821.424.827.328.2
Exports (annual variation in %)-4.3-
Imports (annual variation in %)0.9-
International Reserves (EUR)
External Debt (% of GDP)76.986.283.878.468.1

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Lithuania Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.430.0 %Dec 30

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