Lithuania Economic Forecast

Lithuania Economic Outlook

August 27, 2019

Growth remained vigorous in the second quarter according to a preliminary estimate. Upbeat domestic demand appears to have once again spearheaded the overall expansion, with tightening labor market conditions and growing wages likely to have boosted household consumption. Externally, merchandise export growth largely held up in Q2, despite rising headwinds amid softening demand conditions in the EU. Going into Q3, a deterioration in the economic sentiment indicator and a slip in consumer confidence in July suggest growth momentum softened at the outset of the quarter. In other news, on 13 August, Fitch Ratings upgraded the outlook for Lithuania’s credit rating from stable to positive, citing the government’s sound fiscal policy and financial performance. In a similar move, Moody’s changed the outlook to positive from stable on 23 August.

Lithuania Economic Growth

Growth is seen losing some traction this year, chiefly on slowing fixed investment growth amid weaker inflows of EU-linked cohesion funds and as the external sector feels the pinch of cooling global growth. That said, the overall expansion will remain healthy, thanks to robust household consumption underpinned by rising employment and higher wages. FocusEconomics analysts see growth clocking in at 3.3% in 2019, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before slowing to 2.5% in 2020.

Lithuania Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.02.92.92.92.8
GDP per capita (EUR)11,83212,48312,87413,52914,938
GDP (EUR bn)35.036.637.438.842.2
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.53.52.02.44.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.34.04.05.03.3
Investment (annual variation in %)8.35.84.90.36.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.50.04.42.96.9
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.35.55.36.94.5
Unemployment Rate11.410.18.87.66.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.6-0.6-0.30.20.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)38.840.542.640.039.4
Money (annual variation in %)4.91.533.17.35.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.4-0.3-0.11.73.9
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)1.20.2-0.70.73.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-2.3-5.0-9.6-4.45.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.00.00.0-  -  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)1.001.001.001.001.00
Current Account (% of GDP)0.83.6-2.1-0.70.8
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.31.2-0.8-0.30.4
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-0.9-0.9-2.0-1.8-2.0
Exports (EUR billion)24.023.822.321.925.7
Imports (EUR billion)24.924.724.323.727.7
Exports (annual variation in %)7.0-1.0-6.1-1.717.3
Imports (annual variation in %)5.9-0.9-1.6-2.516.8
International Reserves (EUR)5.97.21.62.53.7
External Debt (% of GDP)70.369.875.885.383.6

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Lithuania Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.200.0 %Sep 04
Stock Market6880.45 %Sep 04

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Lithuania Economic News

  • Lithuania: Inflation inches down in August

    September 10, 2019

    Consumer prices fell 0.4% month-on-month in August, following a milder 0.3% drop in July, and marking the strongest contraction so far this year. A breakdown of the sub-components provided by Statistics Lithuania showed that 5 of the total 12 sub-components saw a fall in prices, led by considerably lower prices for housing and utilities, which more than offset higher prices for alcoholic beverages and tobacco.

    Read more

  • Lithuania: Growth slows in Q2 but remains healthy

    August 30, 2019

    GDP increased 3.9% in year-on-year terms in the second quarter, according to detailed national accounts data released by Lithuania’s Statistical Institute on 30 August.

    Read more

  • Lithuania: Industrial output surges in July

    August 23, 2019

    Industrial production jumped 6.9% in July, recovering vigorously from June’s 1.0% year-on-year contraction.

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  • Lithuania: Inflation edges up in July

    August 9, 2019

    Consumer prices fell 0.3% month-on-month in July, following a milder 0.2% drop in June, and marking the strongest contraction so far this year. A breakdown of the sub-components provided by Statistics Lithuania showed that just 2 of the total 12 sub-components saw a fall in prices, led by considerably lower prices for clothing and footwear, which more than offset higher prices for recreation and culture; hotels, cafés and restaurants; and food.

    Read more

  • Lithuania: Growth remains upbeat in Q2

    July 30, 2019

    Robust growth carried over into the second quarter of the year, according to preliminary national accounts data released by Lithuania’s Statistical Institute on 30 July.

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