Kyrgyzstan Economic Outlook

November 27, 2018

Growth improved following the pick-up in gold production at the all-important Kumtor mine. Economic activity in the January–October period expanded at a faster pace in annual terms than in January–September, supported by a standout performance from the construction sector, which buttressed fixed investment, and solid consumer spending fueled by robust wage gains and rising remittances inflows. Less encouragingly, despite the recent up-tick, cumulative mining output in January–October was still far lower than in the same period last year—as reflected by falling exports—while strong domestic demand led to robust import growth.

Kyrgyzstan Economic Growth

The economy is set to gain speed next year, thanks to rising gold production at the Kumtor mine and faster growth in the industrial sector. Moreover, rising remittances from Russia and sizable wage gains should underpin consumer spending. The main downside risk stems from a slowdown in economic activity in Russia due to U.S. sanctions. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP growth of 3.9% in 2019, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.4% in 2020.

Kyrgyzstan Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	5.8	5.9	6.0	6.1	6.3
GDP per capita (USD)	1,249	1,154	942	1,118	1,203
GDP per capita (EUR)	906	954	867	1,060	1,002
GDP (USD bn)	7.2	6.8	5.7	6.9	7.5
GDP (EUR bn)	5.2	5.6	5.2	6.5	6.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	10.9	4.0	3.9	4.3	4.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-0.8	-0.5	-1.6	-4.4	-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)	46.2	52.3	64.9	58.1	-
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	4.0	10.5	3.4	-0.5	3.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	6.7	7.5	6.6	0.4	3.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	51.56	59.05	76.83	69.56	69.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	51.56	53.69	64.46	70.12	68.95
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)	67.86	71.26	82.45	73.20	83.02
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)	64.34	71.15	71.49	77.36	77.81
Current Account (% of GDP)	-14.1	-18.6	-18.7	-11.5	-3.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-1.0	-1.3	-1.1	-0.8	-0.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-2.8	-2.8	-2.2	-2.1	-2.3
Exports (USD billion)	2.8	2.5	1.6	1.6	1.8
Imports (USD billion)	5.6	5.3	3.9	3.7	4.2
Exports (annual variation in %)	69.3	-12.4	-34.8	-0.7	14.5
Imports (annual variation in %)	0.7	-5.8	-27.0	-3.0	11.8
International Reserves (USD)	2.2	2.0	1.8	2.0	2.2
External Debt (% of GDP)	94.7	109	136	115	-

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Kyrgyzstan Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	69.85	0.0 %	Dec 12
Stock Market	0.1	0.0 %	Nov 26

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