Kyrgyzstan Economic Outlook

March 5, 2019

The economy appears to have begun the year on strong footing, on the heels of a slowdown in 2018. Robust mining output in the all-important Kumtor gold mine, coupled with upbeat manufacturing, buttressed economic activity in January. A drop-off in remittances growth at the end of last year, however, suggests that household spending got off to a slow start. Meanwhile, the external sector cooled in January on flat export growth. On politics, President Sooronbay Jeenbekov ratified a trade agreement between the Eurasian Economic Union and China on 25 February, laying the foundation for freer trade across the region over the long term.

Kyrgyzstan Economic Growth

Looking ahead, the economy is expected to speed up somewhat this year on the back of upward-trending gold prices and resilient external demand, which should fuel exports. On the downside, a slowdown in Russia will likely bruise remittances this year, which, coupled with raising inflation, could squeeze consumers. Our panel expects growth of 3.8% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.3% in 2020.

Kyrgyzstan Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	5.8	5.9	6.0	6.1	6.3
GDP per capita (USD)	1,249	1,154	942	1,118	1,203
GDP per capita (EUR)	906	954	867	1,060	1,002
GDP (USD bn)	7.2	6.8	5.7	6.9	7.5
GDP (EUR bn)	5.2	5.6	5.2	6.5	6.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	10.9	4.0	3.9	4.3	4.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-0.8	-0.5	-1.6	-4.4	-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)	46.2	52.3	64.9	58.1	-
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	4.0	10.5	3.4	-0.5	3.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	6.7	7.5	6.6	0.4	3.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	51.56	59.05	76.83	69.56	69.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	51.56	53.69	64.46	70.12	68.95
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)	67.86	71.26	82.45	73.20	83.02
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)	64.34	71.15	71.49	77.36	77.81
Current Account (% of GDP)	-14.1	-18.6	-18.7	-11.5	-3.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-1.0	-1.3	-1.1	-0.8	-0.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-2.8	-2.8	-2.2	-2.1	-2.3
Exports (USD billion)	2.8	2.5	1.6	1.6	1.8
Imports (USD billion)	5.6	5.3	3.9	3.7	4.2
Exports (annual variation in %)	69.3	-12.4	-34.8	-0.7	14.5
Imports (annual variation in %)	0.7	-5.8	-27.0	-3.0	11.8
International Reserves (USD)	2.2	2.0	1.8	2.0	2.2
External Debt (% of GDP)	94.7	109	136	115	-

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Kyrgyzstan Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	69.93	0.0 %	Mar 11
Stock Market	0.1	0.0 %	Nov 26

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