Kyrgyzstan Economic Forecast

Kyrgyzstan Economic Outlook

May 10, 2022

Annual economic activity growth accelerated in January–March compared to the 2021 average, chiefly on the back of booming activity in the Kumtor gold mine, which boosted the industrial sector’s performance. That said, investment activity growth came to a near-halt in Q1, while electricity supply and agricultural production both contracted in the quarter, thus weighing on the overall upturn. Economic conditions worsened towards the end of the quarter and going into Q2. Household spending has likely taken a hit from the war in Ukraine, as soaring inflation, a depreciating som and a probable plunge in remittances from Russia—which account for nearly one-third of GDP—will likely have dented purchasing power. Notably, in early April, Kyrgyzstan reached an agreement with Canada-based Centerra Gold, which will see it take full control of the Kumtor mine, boding well for government revenues ahead.

Kyrgyzstan Economic Growth

Growth is expected to decelerate this year, following a rebound in 2021.The fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war will likely hammer remittances and drive up inflation, thus hurting household spending. Moreover, the risks are skewed firmly to the downside, stemming from tensions at the border with Tajikistan, depleted water reserves and vulnerability to Covid-19 flare-ups. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP to grow 1.8% in 2022, which is down 2.4 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2023, the panel sees GDP growth at 3.4%.

Kyrgyzstan Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)9621,1401,2521,3031,326
GDP per capita (EUR)8861,0811,0411,1401,181
GDP (USD bn)
GDP (EUR bn)
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.5-5.8-3.7-0.6-0.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.4-
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Exchange Rate (vs USD)76.8369.5669.0069.8569.66
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)64.4670.1268.9568.8469.89
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)82.4573.2083.0279.8578.18
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)71.4977.3677.8181.2978.13
Current Account (% of GDP)-15.9-11.6-6.2-12.1-9.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.1-0.8-0.5-1.0-0.8
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.2-2.1-2.4-3.0-2.6
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)-34.8-0.712.85.65.5
Imports (annual variation in %)-27.0-
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)13611510699.898.4

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Kyrgyzstan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate69.660.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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