Kyrgyzstan Economic Outlook
A remittance and trade-dependent economy:
Kyrgyzstan’s economy is one of the smallest in Central Asia, relying heavily on remittances from workers abroad, primarily in Russia. These remittances account for nearly a third of GDP, making the economy highly susceptible to external shocks, such as economic downturns in Russia. Additionally, Kyrgyzstan depends on re-exporting Chinese goods to neighboring countries, making trade a critical sector.
Gold mining and agriculture:The Kumtor gold mine is the country’s largest source of export revenue and foreign exchange. However, the industry has faced nationalization efforts, legal disputes, and environmental concerns. Agriculture remains a significant employer, but productivity is low, and the sector struggles with outdated infrastructure and limited access to finance.
Challenges in economic policy and governance:Kyrgyzstan faces political instability, frequent changes in leadership, and weak institutional capacity, which hinder long-term economic planning. The country is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), but trade barriers and reliance on Russia complicate economic prospects. Inflation and currency volatility have also been persistent issues.
Kyrgyzstan’s economic outlook:Kyrgyzstan’s growth prospects remain fragile, with risks tied to external economic conditions, political instability, and limited diversification. While trade with China and infrastructure investments offer opportunities, long-term development will require governance improvements, investment in local industries, and greater economic self-sufficiency.
Kyrgyzstan's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 17.5 billion in 2024.
Nominal GDP of USD 17.5 billion in 2024.
Nominal GDP of USD 17.5 billion in 2024.
GDP per capita of USD 2,470 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
GDP per capita of USD 2,470 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
GDP per capita of USD 2,470 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 3.9% over the last decade.
Average real GDP growth of 3.9% over the last decade.
Average real GDP growth of 3.9% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2022, services accounted for 50.8% of overall GDP, manufacturing 12.6%, other industrial activity 26.9%, and agriculture 9.7%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 88.7% of GDP in 2022, government consumption 16.8%, fixed investment 35.6%, and net exports -41.1%.International trade
In 2023, manufactured products made up 31.8% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 6.0%, food 10.9%, ores and metals 10.3% and agricultural raw materials 1.5%, with other categories accounting for 39.5% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 81.8% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 7.2%, food 9.2%, ores and metals 0.5% and agricultural raw materials 0.3%, with other goods accounting for 1.0% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 3.80 billion in 2024, while total imports were USD 12.20 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded average annual growth of 3.9% in the decade to 2024. To read more about GDP growth in Kyrgyzstan, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Kyrgyzstan's fiscal deficit averaged 2.0% of GDP in the decade to 2023. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 2.7% in the decade to 2023. For more information on Kyrgyzstan's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 6.2% in the decade to 2024. Go to our Kyrgyzstan inflation page for extra insight.
Monetary Policy
Kyrgyzstan's monetary policy rate ended 2024 at 9.00%, down from 10.50% a decade earlier. See our Kyrgyzstan monetary policy page for additional details.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the som weakened by 32.3% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the som, click here.
Economic situation in Kyrgyzstan
The economy maintained its exceptional growth trajectory in January–April, expanding at one of the fastest annual paces in 15 years and continuing to rank among the top performers in Central Asia. Preparatory work for the China-Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan railway—with construction to start in July—continued to lift fixed investment and construction activity notably. In addition, double-digit gains in industrial production plus soaring global gold prices will have boosted public coffers; the Kumtor gold mine accounts for almost 12% of GDP and about one-third of budget revenues. Moreover, the Russian ruble has appreciated vs the USD by roughly 40% since January, likely boosting the value of remittances and private consumption; in 2024, remittances accounted for nearly 20% of GDP, with over 90% originating from Russia. Still, the recent tightening of Russian migration laws will have capped the upturn.Kyrgyzstan Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2034.37 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 10 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Kyrgyzstan in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 37 economic indicators for Kyrgyzstan from a panel of 10 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Kyrgyzstan economy. To download a sample report on the Kyrgyzstan's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.