Kyrgyzstan Economic Forecast

Kyrgyzstan Economic Outlook

October 5, 2021

Although the economy contracted at a softer pace of 0.7% in annual terms in January–August (January–July: -1.6% yoy), available indicators suggest that conditions remained challenging in Q3 amid waning domestic and foreign demand. Although industrial production bounced back, fixed investment and construction output both swung into contraction over the prior month in August, boding ill for private sector activity. Moreover, household spending also appeared to lose steam, as evidenced by cooling wholesale and retail trade growth, while another month of plunging exports in August highlighted protracted weaknesses in foreign demand. On a brighter note, on 23 September, the Asian Development Bank approved USD 10.7 million in grants and USD 69.3 million in loans to help diversify the country’s economy, which should notably reduce its dependence on gold and remittance inflows.

Kyrgyzstan Economic Growth

This, year, GDP is seen rebounding on the back of recovering domestic and foreign demand, before growing at a quicker pace in 2022. That said, ongoing disputes between the government and Centerra Gold over the running of the key Kumtor mine threaten the all-important gold production, while Covid-19 flare-ups further cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP to grow 4.3% in 2021. For 2022, the panel sees GDP growth at 5.3%, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate.

Kyrgyzstan Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)9621,1401,2521,3031,326
GDP per capita (EUR)8861,0811,0411,1401,181
GDP (USD bn)
GDP (EUR bn)
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.5-5.8-3.7-0.6-0.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.4-
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Exchange Rate (vs USD)76.8369.5669.0069.8569.66
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)64.4670.1268.9568.8469.89
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)82.4573.2083.0279.8578.18
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)71.4977.3677.8181.2978.13
Current Account (% of GDP)-15.9-11.6-6.2-12.1-9.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.1-0.8-0.5-1.0-0.8
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.2-2.1-2.4-3.0-2.6
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)-34.8-0.712.85.65.5
Imports (annual variation in %)-27.0-
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)13611510699.898.4

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Kyrgyzstan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate69.660.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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