Kyrgyzstan Economic Forecast

Kyrgyzstan Economic Outlook

February 6, 2018

Recently released government data revealed that the economy grew at a robust rate of 4.5% in 2017, picking up pace from the previous three years. According to the data, it was primarily driven by a strong manufacturing sector and solid fixed investment growth. Led by the thriving mining sector, the manufacturing sector picked up pace from 2016, growing at a solid pace in 2017. The mining sector was buoyed by robust output at the Kumtor gold mine. Fixed investment, primarily in infrastructure, is likely to continue its strong performance in 2018, as China eyes investments in Central Asia as part of its One Belt One Road Initiative.

Kyrgyzstan Economic Growth

Amendments to the Water Code, added in November 2017, will allow for further development at the Kumtor mine and should buttress the growth momentum in Kyrgyzstan. Fixed investment is also expected to boost economic growth, while the external sector is likely to benefit from the upswing in the global economy. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project GDP growth of 3.9% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 4.7% in 2019.

Kyrgyzstan Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)5.75.85.96.06.1
GDP per capita (USD)1,1571,2491,1549421,081
GDP per capita (EUR)8779069548671,025
GDP (USD bn)6.57.26.85.76.6
GDP (EUR bn)5.05.25.65.26.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.910.94.03.93.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.00.00.0-1.6-4.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)49.046.252.364.958.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.54.010.53.4-0.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.76.67.56.60.4
Exchange Rate (vs USD)51.5651.5659.0576.8369.56
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)49.0651.5653.6964.4670.12
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)62.4967.8671.2682.4573.20
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)60.4264.3471.1571.4977.36
Current Account (% of GDP)-15.6-14.1-18.6-18.7-10.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.0-1.0-1.3-1.1-0.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.9-4.3-4.1-2.7-2.2
Exports (USD billion)1.71.81.71.51.5
Imports (USD billion)5.66.15.74.23.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-15.57.1-7.9-10.14.2
Imports (annual variation in %)30.98.9-5.6-27.5-8.7
International Reserves (USD)2.02.31.91.4-  
External Debt (% of GDP)91.394.7109136119

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Kyrgyzstan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate68.050.0 %Feb 20
Stock Market0.20.0 %Feb 20

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