Kyrgyzstan Economic Outlook

September 3, 2019

Booming activity at the Kumtor gold mine and a robust manufacturing sector kept the economy growing at an impressive stride in January–July. On the downside, the agricultural, forestry and fishing sector remained subdued in the first seven months of the year, while the supply of electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning shrank in the same period, capping the pace of expansion. Meanwhile, expenditure-based national accounts for the first half of the year showed strong growth in fixed investment, while a faster rise in wages in the period likely shored up private consumption amid muted price pressures. The external sector also contributed positively to the outturn, as export growth was resilient to rising headwinds while imports fell. On the political front, former president Almazbek Atambayev was charged with murder and plotting a state coup on 13 August; his arrest has sparked clashes between the police and supporters.

Kyrgyzstan Economic Growth

The economy is set to gain traction this year on buoyant gold mining production, aided by new investments. Despite a slowdown in global activity, the external sector is seen contributing positively to the print on a surge in export growth. Downside risks to the outlook stem from weakness in Russia derailing remittances and volatile commodity markets. Our panel expects growth of 3.9% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 4.0% in 2020.

Kyrgyzstan Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	5.8	5.9	6.0	6.1	6.3
GDP per capita (USD)	1,249	1,154	942	1,118	1,204
GDP per capita (EUR)	906	954	867	1,060	1,003
GDP (USD bn)	7.2	6.8	5.7	6.9	7.5
GDP (EUR bn)	5.2	5.6	5.2	6.5	6.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	10.9	4.0	3.9	4.3	4.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-0.7	-0.5	-1.4	-4.4	-3.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)	47.1	53.6	67.1	59.1	58.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	4.0	10.5	3.4	-0.5	3.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	6.7	7.5	6.6	0.4	3.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	51.56	59.05	76.83	69.56	69.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	51.56	53.69	64.46	70.12	68.95
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)	67.86	71.26	82.45	73.20	83.02
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)	64.34	71.15	71.49	77.36	77.81
Current Account (% of GDP)	-14.1	-18.6	-18.7	-11.5	-6.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-1.0	-1.3	-1.1	-0.8	-0.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-4.0	-2.8	-2.2	-2.1	-2.4
Exports (USD billion)	2.1	2.5	1.6	1.6	1.8
Imports (USD billion)	6.1	5.3	3.9	3.7	4.2
Exports (annual variation in %)	5.3	20.6	-34.8	-0.7	12.9
Imports (annual variation in %)	8.9	-12.9	-27.1	-3.0	12.1
International Reserves (USD)	2.2	2.0	1.8	2.0	2.2
External Debt (% of GDP)	94.7	109	136	115	108

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Kyrgyzstan Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	70.00	0.0 %	Sep 04
Stock Market	0.1	0.0 %	Sep 04

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