Kyrgyzstan Economic Forecast

Kyrgyzstan Economic Outlook

June 7, 2022

Annual economic activity growth gained traction in January–April compared to the 2021 average. This acceleration was spearheaded by strong growth in the output of the Kumtor gold mine. Alongside robust manufacturing activity, this more than offset the negative effect of plunging electricity production and a diminishing water supply. Moreover, both the retail and wholesale trade increased at a healthy rate in January-April. However, merchandise exports contracted during the same period. The economy faces increasing headwinds for the reminder of Q2. In particular, the fallout from the war in Ukraine—which is likely to include mounting inflationary pressure, a depreciating som and a plunge in remittances inflows from Russia (which currently account for nearly a third of GDP)—bodes ill for both domestic and external demand.

Kyrgyzstan Economic Growth

Our panelists significantly reduced their GDP forecasts this month and now expect the economy to contract in 2022. The fallout from the war in Ukraine will hammer remittances inflows and drive up inflation, undermining private consumption. The risks to the outlook are firmly on the downside—most notably tension with neighboring Tajikistan and diminishing water reserves. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP to contract 0.6% in 2022, which is down 2.4 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2023, the panel expects GDP to grow 3.6%.

Kyrgyzstan Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)5.96.06.16.36.4
GDP per capita (USD)9621,1401,2521,3031,326
GDP per capita (EUR)8861,0811,0411,1401,181
GDP (USD bn)5.76.97.78.28.5
GDP (EUR bn)5.26.56.47.17.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.94.34.73.84.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.5-5.8-3.7-0.6-0.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)67.159.158.954.854.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.4-0.53.70.53.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.60.43.21.51.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)76.8369.5669.0069.8569.66
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)64.4670.1268.9568.8469.89
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)82.4573.2083.0279.8578.18
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)71.4977.3677.8181.2978.13
Current Account (% of GDP)-15.9-11.6-6.2-12.1-9.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.1-0.8-0.5-1.0-0.8
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.2-2.1-2.4-3.0-2.6
Exports (USD billion)1.61.61.81.92.0
Imports (USD billion)3.93.74.25.04.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-34.8-0.712.85.65.5
Imports (annual variation in %)-27.0-3.012.117.9-7.3
International Reserves (USD)1.82.02.22.22.4
External Debt (% of GDP)13611510699.898.4

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Kyrgyzstan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate69.660.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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