Kyrgyzstan Economic Outlook

March 10, 2020

GDP growth gained traction last year, spearheaded by sturdier manufacturing production and robust mining activity at the all-important Kumtor gold mine. Moreover, output in the construction sector accelerated and capital spending growth quickened in 2019, although the wholesale and retail trade sector lost some momentum, thus curbing the upturn somewhat. Turning to this year, the economy seems to have softened at the outset of the year. Economic activity growth weakened markedly in January as both manufacturing production and investment activity rose only modestly at the outset of the year. On the external front, the coronavirus outbreak bodes ill for the country’s external sector in the first quarter of this year due to a downturn in commodity prices and faltering global trade flows.

Kyrgyzstan Economic Growth

The economy is expected to lose some steam this year amid an increasingly difficult external environment. That said, still-solid gold production and favorable global prices for the safe-haven metal should soften the slowdown. Elevated external debt levels, the economy’s dependence on the Russian economy and the impact of the coronavirus fallout are the key risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists forecast growth of 4.0% in 2020, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 4.3% in 2021.

Kyrgyzstan Economy Data

	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Population (million)	5.9	5.9	6.0	6.1	6.3
GDP per capita (USD)	1,154	962	1,140	1,252	1,303
GDP per capita (EUR)	954	886	1,081	1,041	1,140
GDP (USD bn)	6.8	5.7	6.9	7.7	8.2
GDP (EUR bn)	5.6	5.2	6.5	6.4	7.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	4.0	3.9	4.3	4.7	3.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-0.5	-2.7	-6.4	-4.6	-1.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)	53.6	67.1	59.1	58.8	56.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	10.5	3.4	-0.5	3.7	0.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	7.5	6.6	0.4	3.2	1.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	59.05	76.83	69.56	69.00	69.85
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	53.69	64.46	70.12	68.95	68.84
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)	71.26	82.45	73.20	83.02	79.85
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)	71.15	71.49	77.36	77.81	81.29
Current Account (% of GDP)	-18.6	-19.0	-11.6	-6.3	-12.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-1.3	-1.1	-0.8	-0.5	-1.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-2.8	-2.7	-2.4	-2.7	-3.1
Exports (USD billion)	2.5	1.5	1.6	1.8	1.8
Imports (USD billion)	5.3	4.2	4.0	4.5	4.9
Exports (annual variation in %)	20.6	-21.8	6.1	12.2	4.1
Imports (annual variation in %)	-12.9	-27.5	-3.7	12.3	10.2
International Reserves (USD)	2.0	1.8	2.0	2.2	2.2
External Debt (% of GDP)	109	136	115	106	99.8

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Kyrgyzstan Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	69.66	0.0 %	Jan 01
Stock Market	0.1	0.0 %	Jan 07

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