Kyrgyzstan Economic Outlook

June 4, 2019

Growth seems to have gained steam in the first quarter, as sturdy mining output at the all-important Kumtor gold mine and increased manufacturing activity boosted average export growth in Q1. This momentum appears to have carried over into the start of Q2, powered by a stronger industrial sector and upbeat fixed investment. That said, a fall in remittances at the year’s outset suggests that, despite low inflation, household spending lost stride in April. Meanwhile, on 2 May, Parliament banned uranium mining and hinted that it may extend the ban to thorium, thus putting a dozen projects at risk, hurting the business environment and leaving the government exposed to compensation claims from foreign investors.

Kyrgyzstan Economic Growth

The expansion is seen speeding up this year, driven by robust industrial activity and a rebound in export growth. Moreover, new investments in gold mining should expand capacity and boost growth in the near-term. The slowdown in Russia, which is set to hurt remittances, and volatile commodity markets pose downside risks to growth, however. Our panel expects growth of 3.8% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 4.0% in 2020.

Kyrgyzstan Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	5.8	5.9	6.0	6.1	6.3
GDP per capita (USD)	1,249	1,154	942	1,118	1,203
GDP per capita (EUR)	906	954	867	1,060	1,002
GDP (USD bn)	7.2	6.8	5.7	6.9	7.5
GDP (EUR bn)	5.2	5.6	5.2	6.5	6.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	10.9	4.0	3.9	4.3	4.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-0.8	-0.5	-1.6	-4.4	-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)	46.2	52.3	64.9	58.1	-
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	4.0	10.5	3.4	-0.5	3.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	6.7	7.5	6.6	0.4	3.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	51.56	59.05	76.83	69.56	69.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	51.56	53.69	64.46	70.12	68.95
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)	67.86	71.26	82.45	73.20	83.02
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)	64.34	71.15	71.49	77.36	77.81
Current Account (% of GDP)	-14.1	-18.6	-18.7	-11.5	-3.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-1.0	-1.3	-1.1	-0.8	-0.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-2.8	-2.8	-2.2	-2.1	-2.3
Exports (USD billion)	2.8	2.5	1.6	1.6	1.8
Imports (USD billion)	5.6	5.3	3.9	3.7	4.2
Exports (annual variation in %)	69.3	-12.4	-34.8	-0.7	14.5
Imports (annual variation in %)	0.7	-5.8	-27.0	-3.0	11.8
International Reserves (USD)	2.2	2.0	1.8	2.0	2.2
External Debt (% of GDP)	94.7	109	136	115	-

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Kyrgyzstan Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	69.96	0.0 %	Jun 13
Stock Market	0.1	0.0 %	Jun 13

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