Kyrgyzstan Economic Forecast

Kyrgyzstan Economic Outlook

October 29, 2019

Economic growth moderated slightly in January–September from January–June, indicating a mild slowdown in the third quarter. This was largely owing to a loss of steam in mining activity, driven by the all-important Kumtor gold mine. Moreover, the manufacturing sector decelerated; the agricultural sector grew at a lackluster pace, likely due to adverse weather conditions; electricity supply continued falling; and export growth slid from H1 amid souring external conditions. On a more positive note, fixed investment growth in January–September was up markedly from the first half of the year. Furthermore, household spending likely remained resilient, as suggested by the healthy outturn in the wholesale and retail trade sector, shored up robust remittances inflows.

Kyrgyzstan Economic Growth

The economy is seen maintaining a healthy pace next year, largely held up by a thriving mining sector, which should benefit from new investments. The external sector is expected to drag on the outturn, however, as imports are seen rebounding strongly. Downside risks to the outlook stem from challenging external conditions and volatile commodity markets. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 4.0% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 4.2% in 2021.

Kyrgyzstan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)5.85.96.06.16.3
GDP per capita (USD)1,2491,1549421,1181,204
GDP per capita (EUR)9069548671,0601,003
GDP (USD bn)7.26.85.76.97.5
GDP (EUR bn)5.25.65.26.56.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)10.94.03.94.34.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.7-0.5-1.4-4.4-3.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)47.153.667.159.158.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.010.53.4-0.53.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.77.56.60.43.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)51.5659.0576.8369.5669.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)51.5653.6964.4670.1268.95
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)67.8671.2682.4573.2083.02
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)64.3471.1571.4977.3677.81
Current Account (% of GDP)-14.1-18.6-18.7-11.5-6.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.0-1.3-1.1-0.8-0.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.0-2.8-2.2-2.1-2.4
Exports (USD billion)2.12.51.61.61.8
Imports (USD billion)6.15.33.93.74.2
Exports (annual variation in %)5.320.6-34.8-0.712.9
Imports (annual variation in %)8.9-12.9-27.1-3.012.1
International Reserves (USD)2.22.01.82.02.2
External Debt (% of GDP)94.7109136115108

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Kyrgyzstan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate70.000.0 %Sep 04
Stock Market0.10.0 %Sep 04

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