Kyrgyzstan Economic Forecast

Kyrgyzstan Economic Outlook

November 3, 2020

Despite an improvement from Q2, available data suggests that the economy contracted markedly again in Q3, as the health crisis continued to subdue domestic and foreign activity. The crucial mining sector was among the hardest hit, with fossil fuel extraction plunging in the quarter, while the hospitality industry contracted heavily again. In other news, widespread protests following the 4 October general elections forced authorities to annul the results and prompted the resignation of President Sooronbai Jeenbekov on 15 October. Meanwhile, supported by protesters, Sadyr Japarov was sworn in as prime minister on 28 October, also claiming temporary presidential powers. The next parliamentary elections are expected to take place in the first half of 2021. That said, the country’s renewed political instability is likely to hinder the recovery in Q4.

Kyrgyzstan Economic Growth

GDP is seen contracting at the sharpest pace in over two decades this year, before rebounding solidly in 2021, on the back of strengthening domestic activity and recovering foreign demand. Nonetheless, the country’s significant holdings of foreign debt and recent political turmoil pose key downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP to grow 5.1% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2022, the panel sees GDP growth at 5.4%.

Kyrgyzstan Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)5.96.06.16.36.4
GDP per capita (USD)9621,1401,2521,3031,326
GDP per capita (EUR)8861,0811,0411,1401,181
GDP (USD bn)5.76.97.78.28.5
GDP (EUR bn)5.26.56.47.17.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.94.34.73.84.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.5-5.8-3.7-0.6-0.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)67.159.158.954.854.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.4-0.53.70.53.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.60.43.21.51.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)76.8369.5669.0069.8569.66
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)64.4670.1268.9568.8469.89
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)82.4573.2083.0279.8578.18
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)71.4977.3677.8181.2978.13
Current Account (% of GDP)-15.9-11.6-6.2-12.1-9.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.1-0.8-0.5-1.0-0.8
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.2-2.1-2.4-3.0-2.6
Exports (USD billion)1.61.61.81.92.0
Imports (USD billion)3.93.74.25.04.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-34.8-0.712.85.65.5
Imports (annual variation in %)-27.0-3.012.117.9-7.3
International Reserves (USD)1.82.02.22.22.4
External Debt (% of GDP)13611510699.898.4

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Kyrgyzstan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate69.660.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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