Kyrgyzstan Economic Forecast

Kyrgyzstan Economic Outlook

November 28, 2017

GDP growth moderated to 3.9% year-on-year in the January–October period (January–September: +5.0% year-on-year). Growth in the period was driven by the industrial sector, chiefly on the back of the mining sub-component. Fixed investment and the external sector also performed well. Following two years of discussions, amendments to the Water Code were finally approved in November and will allow development around two glaciers at the Kumtor gold deposit. Moreover, Sooronbay Jeenbekov was officially announced as the winner of the presidential elections held on 15 October; he was installed on 24 November. Policies are not expected to change significantly.

Kyrgyzstan Economic Growth

Although the passing of the Water Code amendments should boost the mining sector, the economy is expected to grow at a moderate pace. The ongoing upswing in the global economy should support the external sector and inflows of fixed investment. Accession into the EEU would bode well, but the conflict with Kazakhstan continues to deter the possibility. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project GDP growth of 4.0% in 2018, unchanged from last month, and 4.9% 2019.

Kyrgyzstan Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)5.75.85.96.06.1
GDP per capita (USD)1,1571,2491,1549421,081
GDP per capita (EUR)8779069548671,025
GDP (USD bn)6.57.26.85.76.6
GDP (EUR bn)5.05.25.65.26.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.910.94.03.93.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.00.00.0-1.6-4.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)49.046.252.364.958.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.54.010.53.4-0.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.76.67.56.60.4
Exchange Rate (vs USD)51.5651.5659.0576.8369.56
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)49.0651.5653.6964.4670.12
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)62.4967.8671.2682.4573.20
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)60.4264.3471.1571.4977.36
Current Account (% of GDP)-15.6-14.1-18.6-18.7-10.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.0-1.0-1.3-1.1-0.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.9-4.3-4.1-2.7-2.2
Exports (USD billion)1.71.81.71.51.5
Imports (USD billion)5.66.15.74.23.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-15.57.1-7.9-10.14.2
Imports (annual variation in %)30.98.9-5.6-27.5-8.7
International Reserves (USD)2.02.31.91.4-  
External Debt (% of GDP)91.394.7109136119

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Kyrgyzstan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate69.820.0 %Dec 06
Stock Market0.20.0 %Dec 06

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