Kyrgyzstan Economic Forecast

Kyrgyzstan Economic Outlook

September 8, 2020

Incoming data paints a bleak picture for the Kyrgyz economy. GDP plummeted 6.1% year-on-year in the January to July period, as coronavirus containment measures weighed on construction and services activity. Moreover, remittances, which make up almost 30% of GDP, dropped sharply in the first half of the year overall, reflecting lockdowns abroad and the weak global economy. That said, they improved notably in June amid the easing of lockdown measures, suggesting that the situation is improving. The pandemic has put pressure on the fiscal and current account deficits as government revenues evaporate, forcing authorities to look for international help to avoid a crisis. In August, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank approved a USD 50 million loan and the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development greenlighted a USD 100 million loan to counter the fallout from Covid-19.

Kyrgyzstan Economic Growth

GDP is seen recording the largest contraction since 1996 this year due to the coronavirus pandemic and associated restrictive measures. Depressed remittance inflows will dent household incomes, while subdued external demand will hurt exports. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP to contract 4.6% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2021, the panel sees GDP growth at 5.2%.

Kyrgyzstan Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)5.96.06.16.36.4
GDP per capita (USD)9621,1401,2521,3031,326
GDP per capita (EUR)8861,0811,0411,1401,181
GDP (USD bn)5.76.97.78.28.5
GDP (EUR bn)5.26.56.47.17.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.94.34.73.84.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.5-5.8-3.7-0.6-0.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)67.159.158.954.854.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.4-0.53.70.53.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.60.43.21.51.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)76.8369.5669.0069.8569.66
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)64.4670.1268.9568.8469.89
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)82.4573.2083.0279.8578.18
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)71.4977.3677.8181.2978.13
Current Account (% of GDP)-15.9-11.6-6.2-12.1-9.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.1-0.8-0.5-1.0-0.8
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.2-2.1-2.4-3.0-2.6
Exports (USD billion)1.61.61.81.92.0
Imports (USD billion)3.93.74.25.04.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-34.8-0.712.85.65.5
Imports (annual variation in %)-27.0-3.012.117.9-7.3
International Reserves (USD)1.82.02.22.22.4
External Debt (% of GDP)13611510699.898.4

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Kyrgyzstan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate69.660.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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