Japan: Core inflation stable in October

The core consumer price index rose 0.2% in month-on-month seasonally-adjusted terms in October, above September’s 0.1% increase.

Core inflation was stable at September’s 1.0% in October, matching a median market forecast. Nevertheless, inflation remained well below the Bank of Japan’s inflation target of 2.0%. Overall inflation rose from September’s 1.2% to an eight-month high of 1.4% in October.

Core inflation in the Ku-area of Tokyo was stable at September’s 1.0% in October. Data for November will be released on 30 November.

Japan Inflation Forecast

The median inflation forecast among BoJ members is 1.9% for FY 2019 and 2.0% for FY 2020, including the effects of the consumption tax hike. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation of 1.2% in calendar year 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2020, the panel sees inflation at 1.5%.