Jamaica Economic Outlook
January 21, 2020National accounts data showed that economic growth fell to 0.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, after expanding 1.3% year-on-year in the second quarter. This came on the back of nosediving mining and quarrying activity—which contracted at the steepest rate in over nine years—and the sharpest decline in construction activity in nearly seven years. Meanwhile, growth in the hotels and restaurants sector slowed notably, which was likely linked to the fall in tourist arrivals in the quarter. Looking at data for the final quarter of last year, the economy likely continued to suffer as tourist arrivals declined sharply in October–November compared to the third quarter amid lingering crime-related issues.
Jamaica Economic GrowthEconomic growth is expected to moderate further this year. The closure of the Alpart alumina refinery for up to two years for maintenance work will limit output and exports, while weaker U.S. economic momentum is likely to further weigh on merchandise exports and tourism. On the other hand, cheap credit and a still-tight labor market should cushion the slowdown somewhat. The panel sees the economy growing 1.2% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.7% in 2021.
Jamaica Economy Data
5 years of Jamaica economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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