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Indonesia GDP Q1 2022

Indonesia: GDP growth stable in Q1

Economic growth was unchanged in the first quarter, with GDP expanding 5.0% on an annual basis (Q4 2021: +5.0% year on year).

Household spending increased 4.3% in the first quarter, which was above the fourth quarter’s 3.6% expansion. Conversely, fixed investment growth moderated to 4.1% in Q1, from the 4.5% recorded in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, public spending deteriorated, contracting 7.7% in Q1 (Q4 2021: +5.2% yoy).

On the external front, exports of goods and services growth fell to 16.2% in Q1, marking the slowest reading in a year (Q4 2021: +29.8% yoy). Similarly, imports of goods and services growth waned to 15.0% in Q1 (Q4 2021: +29.6% yoy), marking the weakest reading in a year.

Commenting on the on the release, Jonathan Sequeira, Rina Jio and Andrew Tilton, analysts at Goldman Sachs, remarked:

“Given the upside surprise, incorporating actual Q1 data would mechanically push our annual real GDP growth forecast up to 6.0% in 2022, from 5.7% previously. However, as the reopening rebound was faster-than-expected in Q1 despite the Omicron wave (we had built in more weakness in Q1, with a bigger rebound in Q2), we scale back our sequential growth forecasts for Q2 growth by revising it down to 1.2% s.a. qoq (from 1.5% s.a. qoq, previously). The overall effect of these changes is to keep our annual GDP growth forecast unchanged at 5.7%.”

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