India Trade July 2019

India

India: Exports climb in July and imports drop, leading to a narrower trade deficit

August 14, 2019

Merchandise exports increased 2.3% year-on-year in July to reach USD 26.3 billion, contrasting the 9.7% decrease in June. An over 50% increase in electronic good exports, in addition to an over 20% rise in pharmaceutical exports, helped exports return to growth territory in July. Merchandise imports, meanwhile, fell 10.4% in July to USD 39.8 billion, following the 9.1% decrease in June, on reduced imports of gems and jewelry, and petroleum, crude oil and related products.

The merchandise trade deficit narrowed to USD 13.4 billion in July, down from USD 18.6 billion in the same month a year earlier and the USD 15.3 billion deficit in June. The 12-month trailing sum of the trade deficit narrowed to USD 172.9 billion in July from USD 178.1 billion in June.

Our panelists forecast that exports will expand 8.5% in FY 2019 and imports will rise 8.4%, bringing the merchandise trade deficit to USD 189.0 billion. In FY 2020, we expect exports and imports will expand 9.1% and 7.9% respectively, which would result in a merchandise trade deficit of USD 202.0 billion.


Author:, Economist

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India Trade Chart


India Trade12m July 2019

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry and FocusEconomics calculations.


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