Hungary Economic Outlook
October 1, 2019Early indicators for the third quarter offer some respite, after growth fell to a one-year low in Q2. Industrial activity rose at the fastest pace in over two years in July, thanks to a marked acceleration in manufacturing. At the same time, exports rebounded strongly in the month. Moreover, retail sales growth climbed in July amid a continued fall in inflation, which boosted households’ purchasing power, while confidence among consumers was markedly less pessimistic in August–September, jumping to a near 17-year high in September. On the downside, business sentiment dived to a near six-year low in September, after strengthening in August, thus boding ill for fixed investment. Meanwhile, in the political arena, Central Bank Governor Gyorgy Matolcsy and Finance Minister Mihaly Varga clashed after Matolcsy publicly criticized Varga’s calls for fiscal discipline and instead prescribed a broad economic stimulus to tackle the slowdown.
Hungary Economic GrowthThe economy is seen losing traction this year and next. Domestic demand is projected to weaken next year, as fixed investment growth decelerates sharply on a tapering of EU funds and private consumption growth moderates as the rate of job creation slows. Meanwhile, export growth is seen slowing. Challenging external conditions pose the main downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts see growth at 4.4% in 2019 and at 3.0% in 2020, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.
Hungary Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||2.03||0.0 %||Sep 04|
|Exchange Rate||298.6||-0.68 %||Sep 04|
|Stock Market||39,753||0.04 %||Sep 04|
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Hungary Economic News
October 8, 2019
Consumer prices increased 0.1% over the previous month in September, contrasting the 0.1% month-on-month downturn in August.
October 7, 2019
Industrial production grew a working-day-adjusted 2.7% year-on-year in August, down from July’s 8.7% expansion and marking the lowest reading since October 2018, according to a first estimate released by the Hungarian Central Statistical Office.
September 27, 2019
The forint has been trending down sharply since mid-August and hit an all-time low of 336.0 per EUR for the second consecutive day on 24 September.
September 24, 2019
On 24 September, the Monetary Council of the Hungarian National Bank (MNB) kept the base rate at a record low of 0.90% and held stable all other existing instruments.
Hungary: Economic sentiment tumbles in September on a dive in business confidence, while consumer confidence rises to 17-year high
September 23, 2019
The GKI economic sentiment index, a composite indicator, tumbled to 0.3 points in September from 4.0 points in August.