Hungary Economic Outlook
January 8, 2019Economic activity seemingly remained robust in the fourth quarter of 2018, after strong consumer spending and surging fixed investment drove the third-quarter expansion. In October, growth in the industrial sector picked up on the back of solid car production and retail sales continued to expand sturdily, buttressed by a tight labor market and soaring wages. Although the economic environment remains bright, the political scenario is more turbulent. In order to address the problem of rising labor shortages, in mid-December the Hungarian parliament approved a law which increases the amount of overtime working hours employers can demand their workers to take on. Moreover, in a move which could spark further clashes with EU institutions, the National Assembly passed another law creating a new court system to arbitrate on administrative matters, which will be overseen by the justice minister. Although both laws prompted opposition parties to take to the streets, protests are unlikely to represent a serious challenge to the government due to the political diversity among the opposition and the high approval rating of Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
Hungary Economic GrowthConsumer spending is expected to moderate this year, on higher inflation and softer job gains, while the expansion in fixed investment should slow due to a slower absorption of EU funds. Milder domestic demand will lead to a deceleration in GDP growth, which will nevertheless remain solid. Moreover, healthy growth will lead to a further decline in the public-debt-to-GDP ratio. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 3.4% in 2019, up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% in 2020.
Hungary Economy Data
5 years of Hungary economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||2.87||0.0 %||Jan 16|
|Exchange Rate||282.1||-0.68 %||Jan 16|
|Stock Market||40,933||0.04 %||Jan 16|
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Hungary Economic News
January 15, 2019
Consumer prices dropped 0.3% over the previous month in December, matching November’s reading.
January 14, 2019
According to revised data released by the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH) on 14 January, industrial output rose a working-day adjusted 3.5% year-on-year in November.
January 8, 2019
According to a first estimate released by the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH) on 8 January, industrial output increased a working-day adjusted 3.5% year-on-year in November, up from October’s revised 3.2% rise (previously reported: +3.3% year-on-year). In month-on-month, seasonally and working-day adjusted terms, industrial production dropped 1.1%, contrasting a 2.0% expansion in October.
December 21, 2018
The GKI economic sentiment index, a composite indicator, rose to 8.6 points in December from 7.5 points in November.
December 18, 2018
At its latest monetary policy meeting held on 18 December, the Monetary Council of the Hungarian National Bank (MNB) left the base rate unchanged at its current record low of 0.90%, while also holding steady all other monetary policy instruments.