Hungary Economic Outlook
November 3, 2020The economy seemingly emerged from recession in Q3 after the severe blow dealt by lockdown measures at home and abroad in Q2. Both industrial production and merchandise exports contracted at a notably softer pace in July-August compared to Q2, which, together with higher business sentiment, points to improving private sector activity. Moreover, stronger retail sales and less downbeat consumer sentiment in Q3 hint at recovering household spending. Turning to Q4, available indicators paint a mixed picture of the economy: Although business sentiment rose further in October, consumers turned more pessimistic in the same month, likely due to the sustained rise in new Covid-19 cases. Meanwhile, in late October, the Council of the European Union approved a EUR 504 million loan for Hungary as part of the EU's SURE program to protect jobs and sustain incomes amid the pandemic.
Hungary Economic GrowthNext year, GDP is seen recovering from the pandemic’s fallout as private spending rebounds, external demand returns on the back of a reopening of the global economy and inflows of EU funding provide further support. That said, the unpredictable evolution of the pandemic poses a downside risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts see GDP growing 4.7% in 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.8% in 2022.
Hungary Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||2.08||0.0 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||295.1||-0.68 %||Jan 01|
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Hungary Economic News
May 6, 2021
Industrial output soared 16.2% year-on-year in March (February: +3.9% yoy) benefiting from an extremely low-base effect as March 2020 was the first month of the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a preliminary estimate.
April 28, 2021
At its 27 April meeting, the Monetary Council of the Hungarian National Bank (MNB) decided to keep the base rate unchanged at the all-time low of 0.60%, and also held all other instruments steady, which was in line with market analysts’ expectations. The MNB’s decision was driven by the need to support the economic recovery, despite mounting price pressures.
April 27, 2021
The GKI economic sentiment index, a composite indicator, jumped to minus 6.8 in April from minus 16.7 in March, the best result since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic in March of last year.
April 14, 2021
Industrial output jumped 3.9% year-on-year in February (January: -2.8% yoy), and marked the strongest increase since November 2019, according to a second estimate.
April 9, 2021
Consumer prices jumped 0.70% from the previous month in March, matching February's increase.