Hungary Economic Forecast

Hungary Economic Outlook

March 6, 2018

The Hungarian economy shifted into a higher gear in the fourth quarter, expanding at the fastest pace since 2014. While a breakdown by components is not yet available, the acceleration was likely driven by buoyant domestic demand, as the resumption of inflows of EU investment funds and favorable financial conditions lifted business confidence and spurred strong growth in key sectors such as construction. Unemployment that was at a multi-year low, coupled with high consumer confidence and wage hikes, boosted retail sales in Q4, which expanded at the fastest pace in six quarters. More recent data suggests that momentum likely carried over into 2018. In February, economic sentiment hit a new all-time high thanks to a jump in business and consumer confidence. On the political scene, the ruling Fidesz party suffered an unexpected defeat in a local by-election on 25 February. The defeat, which occurred in a regional stronghold, hints that the party’s expected lead in the upcoming general election on 8 April will be narrower than initially anticipated.

Hungary Economic Growth

A solid domestic economy and a pick-up in external demand should support robust growth this year. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy will expand 3.6% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2019, the panel sees growth moderating to 3.0%.

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Hungary Facts

Bond Yield2.730.0 %Mar 14
Exchange Rate253.0-0.68 %Mar 15
Stock Market38,8910.04 %Mar 14

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Hungary Economic News