Hong Kong Economic Outlook
August 20, 2019
The economic environment has markedly deteriorated as pro-democracy protests headed into their third month in August. Tensions have ramped up between protestors and police, disrupting economic activity in various sectors, notably including bringing the Hong Kong International Airport to a standstill on 12–13 August. The situation remains tense and the unrest is poised to continue rocking sentiment and generating uncertainty. Against this backdrop, the government unveiled a nearly USD 2.5 billion stimulus package on 15 August, which includes tax cuts and extra spending to bolster the economy. Meanwhile, the latest available economic data is downbeat: GDP growth lost steam in the second quarter, partly due to plummeting fixed investment, and the PMI dropped to an over decade-low in July.Hong Kong Economic Growth
Hong Kong’s outlook was slashed this month amid a perfect storm of civil unrest, escalating trade tensions and deteriorating prospects for China. Disrupted activity and downbeat sentiment are seen causing GDP to grow at the slowest pace since 2009 this year. Our panel expects growth of 1.4% in 2019, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.0% in 2020.Hong Kong Economy Data
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Hong Kong Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 1.04 | 3.38 % | Sep 04 |
| Exchange Rate | 7.84 | -0.11 % | Sep 04 |
| Stock Market | 26,523 | -1.92 % | Sep 04 |
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Hong Kong Economic News
Hong Kong: PMI freefalls in August amid intensifying protests and trade tensions
September 4, 2019
The IHS Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), plunged from 43.8 in July to 40.8 in August, marking the lowest reading since February 2009 amid mass protests and elevated global trade tensions.
Hong Kong: Retail sales remain dejected in July
August 30, 2019
Retail sales by volume dipped 13.0% year-on-year in July, a notable deterioration from June’s 7.6% contraction.
Hong Kong: Inflation unchanged in July
August 20, 2019
Inflation was stable at June’s 3.3% in July.
Hong Kong: Protests damage economic environment, prompting government to unveil stimulus package
August 16, 2019
The economic environment has soured notably as large-scale pro-democracy protests, which were sparked by an extradition bill which has since been shelved, entered their third month in August.
Hong Kong: Economic growth slows for fifth consecutive quarter in Q2; near-term prospects look bleak
August 16, 2019
The economy slowed for the fifth consecutive quarter in the second quarter, with year-on-year growth dipping to 0.5%, a notch down from Q1’s 0.6% expansion.
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