Hong Kong Economic Forecast

Hong Kong Economic Outlook

June 21, 2022

After shrinking at the sharpest pace since 2020 in Q1 2022 due to soaring Covid-19 cases and tough ensuing restrictions, the economy is enjoying a strong rebound in Q2. Covid-19 cases have tumbled since their March peak, allowing for the progressive rollback of restrictions, and the distribution of HKD 5,000 (around USD 635) consumption vouchers to citizens in April is further aiding private spending. Looking at available indicators, retail sales surged year on year in April, while the private-sector PMI rose to an over decade-high in May. However, ongoing quarantine requirements continue to hamper tourism and the city’s international competitiveness. Moreover, in mid-June, testing requirements were reintroduced for entry to bars and clubs in response to a slight uptick in cases, raising the specter of a broader snapback of restrictions ahead.

Hong Kong Economic Growth

GDP growth will be tepid this year due to the impact of the pandemic at home and in mainland China. That said, government stimulus spending should provide some support, with a second batch of consumption vouchers to be issued in August. A more restrictive political environment and lingering Covid-19 measures pose risks to long-term competitiveness and investment. The FocusEconomics panel projects the economy to grow 1.0% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast. In 2023, the panel sees growth at 3.8%.

Hong Kong Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)7.37.47.47.57.6
GDP per capita (USD)42,31943,49146,03748,32348,380
GDP (USD bn)309321341362366
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.42.23.82.8-1.2
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)1.52.55.24.3-3.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.82.05.55.3-1.1
Investment (annual variation in %)-3.2-0.13.11.7-12.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-1.5-7.11.97.6-12.3
Unemployment Rate3.33.43.22.82.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.64.55.62.4-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)0.10.10.10.10.3
Money (annual variation in %)5.57.710.04.32.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.31.21.72.62.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.02.41.52.42.9
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-2.81.33.82.01.0
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)0.391.021.312.332.43
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-7.20.436.0-13.69.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)7.757.757.817.837.79
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)7.757.767.797.847.84
Current Account (% of GDP)3.34.04.63.76.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)10.312.715.914.822.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)-57.1-54.5-61.9-71.7-54.1
Exports (USD billion)465462498531510
Imports (USD billion)523517559603564
Exports (annual variation in %)-1.8-0.67.66.8-4.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-4.1-1.18.27.8-6.5
International Reserves (USD)359386431425441
External Debt (% of GDP)420423461469457

Sample Report

5 years of Hong Kong economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.

Download

Hong Kong Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield1.823.38 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate7.79-0.11 %Jan 01

Request a Trial

Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.

Sign Up

Hong Kong Economic News

Search form