Hong Kong Economic Forecast

Hong Kong Economic Outlook

September 19, 2017

Full-year growth prospects have improved on the heels of a surprisingly robust outturn in H1, although the expansion is expected to moderate somewhat in H2. A strong labor market has underpinned household spending so far this year, and July’s jump in retail sales seemed to confirm that the sector has finally moved past the falling receipts of the past three years. With the recent uptick in tourist arrivals, full-year growth in retail sales is now expected to turn positive by year-end. That said, the Nikkei PMI dipped back into contractionary territory in August as demand waned from mainland China, a trend further documented in the cool-off in exports growth in July. Furthermore, despite a stellar H1, survey data appeared to confirm that business conditions have not kept pace with the strides made by the rest of the economy.

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Hong Kong Facts

Bond Yield1.70-2.02 %Oct 16
Exchange Rate7.810.0 %Oct 16
Stock Market28,6930.76 %Oct 16

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Hong Kong Economic Growth

September 19, 2017

A cool-off is due to begin in H2 and last into next year following back-to-back quarters of impressive growth in H1. Any downshift, however, is expected to be moderated by resilient dynamics in the domestic economy: High asset prices and low unemployment will continue underpinning household spending. Weighing on the outlook for next year is a weakening of Chinese demand for exports and the possibility of a property market correction. Our analysts expect GDP to grow 3.1% in 2017 and then ease to 2.4% in 2018, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

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