Hong Kong Economic Outlook
February 20, 2018The economy is likely to have posted another strong result in the final quarter of 2017. Despite moderating slightly in December, retail sales growth accelerated in Q4 from Q3 mainly due to a recovery in tourist arrivals from mainland China. Moreover, dynamics in the job market remain robust, with the unemployment rate in December hitting the lowest level in over 20 years. A booming global economy is translating into sustained growth in exports. Although housing prices continue to hit all-time highs, some warning signs have started to emerge: Chinese developers, which represented around 50% of the total land buyers in 2016, are pulling back from their rapid expansion in the island due to Hong Kong’s longer development cycle and Chinese authorities’ efforts to reduce capital outflows. Financial Secretary Paul Chan will deliver the budget for this year on February 28. The government is likely to unveil a more expansionary budget, given the expected massive fiscal surplus the island achieved in 2017.
Hong Kong Economic GrowthAlthough growth will decelerate this year, the economy should expand at a robust rate on the back of strong retail sales, healthy dynamics in the financial sector and a resilient property market. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 2.8% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, before ticking down to 2.6% in 2019.
Hong Kong Economy Data
5 years of Hong Kong economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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Hong Kong Facts
|Bond Yield||1.95||3.38 %||Mar 15|
|Exchange Rate||7.84||-0.11 %||Mar 15|
|Stock Market||31,541||-1.92 %||Mar 15|
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Hong Kong Economic News
March 5, 2018
In February, the Nikkei Hong Kong Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by IHS Markit, edged up from 51.1 a month earlier to 51.7—a four-year high.
March 2, 2018
Retail sales volumes grew 2.2% in annual terms in January, softening from the 4.3% rise recorded in December.
February 28, 2018
Despite easing, economic growth in the final quarter of last year remained upbeat on robust consumer spending and buoyant asset prices.
Hong Kong: Inflation stable in January as electricity charges offset timing of Lunar New Year’s drag on prices
February 22, 2018
Inflation was stable from a month earlier at 1.7% in January, with food and housing prices each rising at a broadly similar pace to December.
February 5, 2018
The Nikkei Hong Kong Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by IHS Markit, inched down from 51.5 in December to 51.1 in January.