Germany Economic Outlook
March 26, 2019After narrowly avoiding a technical recession last year, data from the first quarter of 2019 is mixed. The domestic economy should have benefited from low unemployment through February, robust service sector activity through March and improving consumer confidence in the quarter. The export-orientated manufacturing sector, however, suffered amid a more challenging economic climate in the Eurozone and more broadly. Export growth was flat in January while the downturn in the manufacturing sector intensified through March on dropping foreign demand for German goods. Weak demand from the automotive sector further drove the ongoing downturn in March and the manufacturing sector consequently dragged on the composite PMI in the quarter. In light of the gloomier Eurozone outlook, investors flocked to German bunds, driving its yield to below zero on 22 March for the first time in over two years.
Germany Economic GrowthRobust domestic demand, in part due to the government’s more fiscally expansionary budget that includes a higher minimum wage, should support economic growth this year. A strong labor market will further underpin resilient private consumption. Global trade tensions, a slowdown in China and Brexit uncertainty cloud the outlook, however. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to expand 1.0% in 2019, down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.5% in 2020.
Germany Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||0.02||0.41 %||Apr 22|
|Exchange Rate||1.13||0.65 %||Apr 22|
|Stock Market||12,222||-0.41 %||Apr 18|
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Germany Economic News
April 24, 2019
After pessimism reigned in the first quarter, the second quarter opened in a similar fashion.
April 23, 2019
The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by IHS Markit, ticked up to 52.1 in April from 51.4 in March.
April 11, 2019
Harmonized consumer prices rose 0.5% month-on-month in March, matching the price increase in February.
April 8, 2019
The seasonally- and calendar-adjusted trade surplus rose from EUR 18.6 in January to EUR 18.7 in February, driven by a stronger fall in imports than exports.
Germany: Industrial production rebounds in February, but manufacturing sector continues to remain limp
April 5, 2019
Germany’s industrial sector rebounded in February with output growing 0.7% month-on-month, contrasting the revised flat reading in January (previously reported: -0.8% month-on-month).