Germany Economic Outlook
January 30, 2018Data recently released by the German government showed that the economy grew 2.2% in 2017. Domestic demand was the main pillar of growth last year, underpinned by a buoyant labor market with strong employment and wage growth. Although the full-year growth rate was released without hard data for the final quarter of the year, the economy likely moderated slightly in Q4. In November, industrial production rebounded strongly in month-on-month terms from a contraction a month prior. Exports also rebounded in November from the previous month. Moreover, indicators suggest that the momentum in 2017 spilled over into Q1 2018. Consumer confidence rose in January, while the PMI remained strong in the same month. On 21 January, the SPD party congress voted in favor of entering formal coalition negations with Angela Merkel’s CDU. While an agreement is expected to contain some tax reductions and increased public spending, it will likely be devoid of structural reforms or ambitious EU initiatives.
Germany Economic GrowthDomestic demand is expected to keep economic growth afloat this year as private consumption benefits from strong labor market dynamics, and fixed investment should be encouraged by a robust manufacturing sector. Household spending could also benefit from any fiscal stimulus plans of the new government. Meanwhile, the political risk to economic growth has likely decreased. However, a strong euro could still drag on exports. Analysts see GDP growth at 2.3% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 1.8% in 2019.
Germany Economy Data
5 years of Germany economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||0.65||0.41 %||Feb 22|
|Exchange Rate||1.23||0.65 %||Feb 22|
|Stock Market||12,462||-0.41 %||Feb 22|
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Germany Economic News
February 23, 2018
On 23 February, Destatis released a detailed breakdown of economic growth in the final quarter of 2017, confirming the preliminary reading of 0.6% quarter-on-quarter.
February 22, 2018
German business confidence fell from 117.6 points in January to 115.4 points in February, undershooting market expectations significantly.
February 21, 2018
The IHS Markit flash composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped from the prior month’s record high of 59.0 (previously reported: 58.8) to 57.4 in February.
February 14, 2018
According to preliminary data released by the Federal Statistics Office (Destatis) on 14 February, the German economy marginally lost steam in Q4.
February 14, 2018
Consumer prices decreased 0.7% in January over the previous month, according to data released by the Federal Statistics Office (Destatis) on 14 February.