Germany Economic Outlook
September 29, 2020After contracting at a historic pace in the second quarter, the economy is expected to have emerged from recession in the third; however, available data points to a fragile recovery amid rising new Covid-19 cases. In July, industrial output lost traction, while retail sales fell slightly over the prior month. More positively, business confidence turned significantly less pessimistic in the quarter and private sector operating conditions improved, although they worsened in the services sector in September. Furthermore, consumer sentiment also turned markedly less sour, which, coupled with a stabilizing unemployment rate due to the short-term work scheme, should provide household consumption some respite. External demand also firmed as merchandise exports expanded for the third month running in July, albeit at a slower pace in part due to an unsupportive base effect.
Germany Economic GrowthThis year, GDP should contract sharply as the Covid-19 pandemic and associated containment measures weigh heavily on foreign and domestic demand. Fiscal stimulus measures should lay the groundwork for a recovery next year, however. In 2021, the economy is forecast to rebound strongly as activity returns, although this will be partly due to a supportive base effect. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project the economy to contract 5.8% in 2020 and to grow 4.5% in 2021, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate.
Germany Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||-0.19||0.41 %||Jan 01|
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Germany Economic News
October 14, 2020
Harmonized consumer prices dropped 0.38% from the previous month in September, following August's 0.19% fall.
October 8, 2020
Merchandise exports rose 2.4% month-on-month in August on a calendar- and seasonally-adjusted basis, down from July’s 4.7% climb.
October 7, 2020
Industrial output fell 0.2% on a calendar-adjusted month-on-month basis in August (July: +1.4% mom).
September 24, 2020
Business confidence rose to 93.4 in September from 92.5 in August, marking the best reading since February and suggests that the economy is gradually recovering from the pandemic-induces crisis.
September 23, 2020
Consumer confidence is expected to inch up from minus 1.7 in September to minus 1.6 in October. The projected uptick in the headline reading came on the back of more optimistic income expectations and economic expectations in September—backward-looking data for September was released at the same time and underpins the October estimate.