Germany Economic Outlook
June 26, 2018
The economy continues to stumble against an increasingly uncertain global and domestic political background. First-quarter data disappointed, and available figures for the second quarter continue to be lackluster. At the start of the quarter, industrial production moderated, while retail sales were weak despite record-low unemployment levels continuing into May. Moreover, in the second quarter, the average PMI, consumer confidence and business sentiment readings trended lower compared to the prior quarter. Business confidence deteriorated on the back of pessimistic outlooks on future business conditions amid global and domestic geopolitical tensions. The United States could slap tariffs on European cars, which would especially hit German industry, given Germany’s position as Europe’s leading car manufacturer. Politically, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition looks shaky, as pressure builds over the EU’s migration policies.Germany Economic Growth
Downside risks are building. In the short term, there is notably political uncertainty at home, but in the medium term escalating tensions with the U.S. represent the biggest risk. Despite disappointing monthly data, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to pick up pace in the remainder of the year and expand 2.2% in 2018, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. The economy is expected to be carried by healthy government consumption, private consumption and fixed investment. Strong wage growth should buttress household consumption. Next year, the panel foresees growth of 1.9%.Germany Economy Data
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Germany Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 0.28 | 0.41 % | Jul 13 |
| Exchange Rate | 1.17 | 0.65 % | Jul 13 |
| Stock Market | 12,541 | -0.41 % | Jul 13 |
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Germany Economic News
Germany: Inflation eases marginally, but remains elevated in June
July 12, 2018
In June, consumer prices in Germany rose 0.1% over the previous month, down from a 0.5% increase in May, according to data released by the Federal Statistics Office (Destatis) on 12 July.
Germany: Industrial production data surprises on the upside in May on the back of a strong construction sector
July 6, 2018
Industrial production data for May provided some positive news following a stream of largely lackluster economic data so far this year.
Germany: Consumer sentiment expected to remain robust at the outset of the third quarter
June 28, 2018
The forward-looking consumer confidence indicator released by the GfK Group is expected to remain stable at the prior month’s 10.7 points in July.
Germany: Business confidence trends down in June, signaling a continuation of moderating momentum
June 25, 2018
At the close of the second quarter, data continued to suggest that the German economy is moderating; business confidence in June inched down from the prior month’s seasonally-adjusted 102.3 (previously reported: 102.2) to 101.8 on the back of less upbeat sentiment regarding current business conditions compared to the prior month.
Germany: Inflation reaches highest level in more than one year
June 14, 2018
Consumer prices in Germany increased 0.5% over the prior month in May, contrasting April’s flat reading, according to data released by the Federal Statistics Office (Destatis) on 14 June.
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