Germany Economic Outlook
December 20, 2019Germany avoided a technical recession in the third quarter as stronger private consumption growth firmed domestic demand. The government’s slightly more expansionary stance also boosted the economy, as did the external sector’s turnaround. However, prospects for the final quarter remain dim. Although exports grew robustly in October over the prior month, retail sales contracted at the sharpest rate in 10 months in the same month. Moreover, business sentiment remained depressed through November, while industrial output fell to a six-month low in October and the manufacturing PMI stayed in contractionary territory through December. More positively, the services sector seemingly remained in good health in the quarter, while still-muted inflation and a tight labor market in October–November bode well for household outlays.
Germany Economic GrowthGrowth should shift into a higher, albeit still low, gear next year as low inflation, a tight labor market and cheap credit conditions support domestic demand. Nevertheless, the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside and hinges largely on external events such as Brexit and the China-U.S. trade conflict. Tensions between the EU and the U.S. will also play a key role. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project the economy to expand 0.7% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s projection, and 1.2% in 2021.
Germany Economy Data
5 years of Germany economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||-0.19||0.41 %||Jan 01|
|Exchange Rate||1.12||0.65 %||Dec 31|
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Germany Economic News
January 24, 2020
Germany’s private-sector economy started the new year on stronger footing as the composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by IHS Markit, rose to 51.1 in January from 50.2 in December (previously reported: 49.4).
January 16, 2020
Harmonized consumer prices in Germany rose 0.6% month-on-month in December, contrasting the 0.8% drop in November.
January 9, 2020
Industrial production grew 1.1% month-on-month in November, contrasting the revised 1.0% contraction in the prior month (previously reported: -1.7% month-on-month).
January 9, 2020
November trade data was little cause for jubilation.
December 18, 2019
At the close of the year, business confidence rose in Germany from a revised 95.1 in November (previously reported: 95.0) to 96.3 in December.