Germany Economic Outlook
September 25, 2018
Following an acceleration in the second quarter, monthly data suggests that the economy continues to perform solidly in the third quarter. The average composite PMI reading in the first two months of Q3 trended above the average figure for the previous quarter. Moreover, sentiment among consumers remained elevated through September while business sentiment edged up in August. On the other hand, in July industrial production contracted sharply month-on-month despite a strong rebound from the construction sector. In addition, exports fell, and the trade surplus narrowed to a multi-year low amid resilient import growth. On the political front, next month’s state elections in Bavaria will worry the Christian Social Union—aligned with Chancellor Merkel’s CDU—which could lose its absolute majority in the southern state. Such a result could heighten tensions in the federal government’s governing coalition.Germany Economic Growth
Domestic demand should continue bolstering economic growth in the second half of this year and next year. Above-inflation pay rises are likely to support household consumption while a raise in the minimum wage next year—when ratified by the government later this year—should stimulate private consumption further. A no-deal Brexit and a possible escalation of trade tensions between the EU and the U.S., Germany’s biggest export market, pose downside risks to the outlook, however. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to expand 2.0% in 2018 and 1.8% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast.Germany Economy Data
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Germany Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 0.50 | 0.41 % | Oct 12 |
| Exchange Rate | 1.16 | 0.65 % | Oct 12 |
| Stock Market | 11,524 | -0.41 % | Oct 12 |
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Germany Economic News
Germany: Inflation rises in September
October 12, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.4% over the previous month in September, up from a 0.1% increase in August.
Germany: Trade data remains uninspiring as exports contract in August
October 9, 2018
Trade data remained lackluster in August, with exports contracting 0.1% over the previous month on a seasonally- and calendar-adjusted basis.
Germany: Industrial production falls for the third consecutive month in August
October 8, 2018
Industrial production contracted 0.3% over the previous month in August in seasonally, price and working-day adjusted terms, marking the third consecutive drop but up from July’s revised 1.3% decline (previously reported: -1.1% month-on-month).
Germany: Slight pick-up in consumer confidence expected in October
September 27, 2018
The forward-looking consumer confidence indicator for October released by the GfK Group increased slightly to 10.6 points, up from September’s 10.5 points, with consumers unmoved by recent political uncertainty.
Germany: Business confidence eases in September
September 24, 2018
Sentiment among German businesses inched down to 103.7 points in September from a revised 103.9 points in August (previously reported: 103.8 points).
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